Consensus | Actual | Previous | Revised | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Quarter over Quarter | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.2% | |
Year over Year | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.5% |
Highlights
Key contributors to quarterly growth included household consumption, which rose a solid 0.7 percent and provided 0.4 percentage point boost. Gross fixed capital formation also rebounded significantly, rising by 2.0 percent although this failed to reverse declines of 2.3 percent and 2.4 percent in the first and second quarters respectively. Government spending was up 0.5 percent and inventories added contributed 0.4 percentage points. However, net trade subtracted 0.7 percentage points as exports fell by 1.5 percent while imports edged up slightly.
Within the region's quarterly advance, France expanded 0.4 percent, Spain a solid 0.8 percent for a third straight quarter and Germany just 0.1 percent (its first expansion in the last three quarters). Italy was flat over the quarter. Elsewhere Lithuania grew 1.2 percent, Croatia 0.8 percent and Greece 0.3 percent. Ireland expanded a solid 3.5 percent after a 0.3 percent decline in the previous quarter but Latvia (minus 0.2 percent) and Austria (minus 0.1 percent) were both in recession.
The third quarter data show the Eurozone economy keeping its head quite well above water but will have been flattered by temporary Olympic effects. The current period is likely to see a marked slowdown. In any event, the update will not stop the ECB cutting key interest rates next week.To this end, the Eurozone RPI and RPI-P now stand at minus 15 and minus 12 respectively, showing economic activity in general lagging slightly behind market expectations.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Definition
Description
Each financial market reacts differently to GDP data because of their focus. For example, equity market participants cheer healthy economic growth because it improves the corporate profit outlook while weak growth generally means anemic earnings. Equities generally drop on disappointing growth and climb on good growth prospects.
Bond or fixed income markets are contrarians. They prefer weak growth so that there is less of a chance of higher central bank interest rates and inflation. When GDP growth is poor or negative it indicates anemic or negative economic activity. Bond prices will rise and interest rates will fall. When growth is positive and good, interest rates will be higher and bond prices lower.
Currency traders prefer healthy growth and higher interest rates. Both typically lead to increased demand for a local currency. However, inflationary pressures can put downside pressure on a currency regardless of growth. For example, if inflation remains above the ECB’s near-2 percent target for long enough, worries about the impact of lost competitiveness on the merchandise trade balance could prompt investors to switch to an alternative currency.