ConsensusActualPreviousRevised
Quarter over Quarter0.4%0.4%0.2%
Year over Year0.9%0.9%0.6%0.5%

Highlights

Third quarter growth was unrevised leaving GDP expanding by 0.4 percent quarter-over-quarter, double the 0.2 percent second quarter rate. Year-over-year, GDP rose by 0.9 percent, up from 0.6 percent in the previous quarter.

Key contributors to quarterly growth included household consumption, which rose a solid 0.7 percent and provided 0.4 percentage point boost. Gross fixed capital formation also rebounded significantly, rising by 2.0 percent although this failed to reverse declines of 2.3 percent and 2.4 percent in the first and second quarters respectively. Government spending was up 0.5 percent and inventories added contributed 0.4 percentage points. However, net trade subtracted 0.7 percentage points as exports fell by 1.5 percent while imports edged up slightly.

Within the region's quarterly advance, France expanded 0.4 percent, Spain a solid 0.8 percent for a third straight quarter and Germany just 0.1 percent (its first expansion in the last three quarters). Italy was flat over the quarter. Elsewhere Lithuania grew 1.2 percent, Croatia 0.8 percent and Greece 0.3 percent. Ireland expanded a solid 3.5 percent after a 0.3 percent decline in the previous quarter but Latvia (minus 0.2 percent) and Austria (minus 0.1 percent) were both in recession.

The third quarter data show the Eurozone economy keeping its head quite well above water but will have been flattered by temporary Olympic effects. The current period is likely to see a marked slowdown. In any event, the update will not stop the ECB cutting key interest rates next week.To this end, the Eurozone RPI and RPI-P now stand at minus 15 and minus 12 respectively, showing economic activity in general lagging slightly behind market expectations.

Market Consensus Before Announcement

No revisions are expected to the flash data which showed 0.4 percent quarterly growth and a 0.9 percent yearly rate.

Definition

Gross domestic product (GDP) is the broadest measure of aggregate economic activity and encompasses every sector of the economy and is usually released early in the third month after the reference period. Following two provisional (flash) estimates containing only limited information, this report provides the first full look at the national accounts for the region.

Description

GDP is the all-inclusive measure of economic activity. Investors need to closely track the economy because it usually dictates how investments will perform. Stock market Investors like to see healthy economic growth because robust business activity translates to higher corporate profits. The GDP report contains a treasure-trove of information which not only paints an image of the overall economy, but tells investors about important trends within the big picture. These data, which follow the international classification system (SNA93), are readily comparable to other industrialized countries. GDP components such as consumer spending, business and residential investment, and price (inflation) indexes illuminate the economy's undercurrents, which can translate to investment opportunities and guidance in managing a portfolio.

Each financial market reacts differently to GDP data because of their focus. For example, equity market participants cheer healthy economic growth because it improves the corporate profit outlook while weak growth generally means anemic earnings. Equities generally drop on disappointing growth and climb on good growth prospects.

Bond or fixed income markets are contrarians. They prefer weak growth so that there is less of a chance of higher central bank interest rates and inflation. When GDP growth is poor or negative it indicates anemic or negative economic activity. Bond prices will rise and interest rates will fall. When growth is positive and good, interest rates will be higher and bond prices lower.

Currency traders prefer healthy growth and higher interest rates. Both typically lead to increased demand for a local currency. However, inflationary pressures can put downside pressure on a currency regardless of growth. For example, if inflation remains above the ECB’s near-2 percent target for long enough, worries about the impact of lost competitiveness on the merchandise trade balance could prompt investors to switch to an alternative currency.
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