Highlights
The focus is on remarks by various officials at the annual Jackson Hole, Wyoming, economic symposium. The three-day event starting Thursday is entitled"Reassessing the Effectiveness and Transmission of Monetary Policy." The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City hosts dozens of central bankers, policymakers, academics and economists from around the world.
Among European purchasing managers' indexes, France's flash composite output index is seen dipping from July's final 49.1 to 48.9 in August. The Paris Olympics might have had some impact.
In Germany, the manufacturing PMI in July remained deeply depressed at 43.2. No meaningful improvement is expected for August where the consensus is 43.5. Services, which in July edged 6 tenths lower to 52.5, are seen steady at 52.4.
The Eurozone composite PMI is expected to rise to 50.7 in August versus 50.2 in July and 50.9 in June. Manufacturing in August is expected to edge higher to 46.1 versus 45.8 in both July and June. Services are expected at 52.2 from July's 51.9.
In the UK, the manufacturing PMI has held over the 50 line the last three reports with August seen unchanged at 52.1. Services rose 4 tenths in July to 52.5 with August's consensus at 52.8. The composite is seen little changed at 52.9 vs 52.8.
The Confederation of British Industry (CBI) survey is expected to show the headline balance gauge rose from minus 32 percent in July to minus 22 percent in August.
In the US, new jobless claims for the August 17 week are expected to come in at 234,000 versus a lower-than-expected 227,000 in the prior week.
The Chicago Fed national activity index is expected to fall to minus 0.20 in July from plus 0.05 in June, when it slipped from plus 0.23 in May as all four main components declined.
In the US PMI report for August, manufacturing is seen steady at 49.5 versus July's 49.6. Services held steady in July at 55.0, with the consensus for August a point lower at 54.0. The composite is also seen a point lower, at 53.3.
Existing home sales in July are expected to edge higher to a 3.90 million rate after June's 3.89 and May's 4.11 million annualized rates. The National Association of Realtors has noted that resales are slowly shifting from a seller's market to a buyer's market.
The Eurozone consumer confidence index for August, due at 10 a.m. EDT (1400 GMT), is expected to hold unchanged at July's minus 13.0 which was a full point above June and a half point above the consensus.
New Zealand, retail sales volumes are forecast to fall 0.8 percent on quarter in the April-June period after posting their first increase in just over two years in January-March, when they rebounded 0.5 percent after falling 1.8 percent in the previous quarter. Last week, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand lowered the official cash rate by 25 basis points to 5.50 percent for its first rate cut in this rate since March 2020 in light of easing inflation and slowing consumer spending.
Consumer inflation in Japan is expected to continue accelerating slightly in the core reading in July, reflecting the full impact of a scheduled end to the 18-month utility subsidies, while easing in two of the three key measures, thanks to slowing processed food markups. The government plans to revive a similar scheme for three months ending in October when high temperatures are expected to boost the use of air conditioners, which would temporarily lower inflation.
The core CPI (excluding fresh food prices), key to the Bank of Japan's policy stance, is forecast to rise 2.7 percent on year after the pace of increase picked up to 2.6% in June from 2.5 percent in May and 2.2 percent in April. The year-over-year increase in the total CPI is forecast at 2.7 percent in July, down slightly from 2.8 percent seen in the previous two months. Underlying inflation measured by the core-core CPI (excluding fresh food and energy) is also expected to moderate to 1.9 percent after picking up to 2.2 percent in June from 2.1 percent in May.
Among European purchasing managers' indexes, France's flash composite output index is seen dipping from July's final 49.1 to 48.9 in August. The Paris Olympics might have had some impact.
In Germany, the manufacturing PMI in July remained deeply depressed at 43.2. No meaningful improvement is expected for August where the consensus is 43.5. Services, which in July edged 6 tenths lower to 52.5, are seen steady at 52.4.
The Eurozone composite PMI is expected to rise to 50.7 in August versus 50.2 in July and 50.9 in June. Manufacturing in August is expected to edge higher to 46.1 versus 45.8 in both July and June. Services are expected at 52.2 from July's 51.9.
In the UK, the manufacturing PMI has held over the 50 line the last three reports with August seen unchanged at 52.1. Services rose 4 tenths in July to 52.5 with August's consensus at 52.8. The composite is seen little changed at 52.9 vs 52.8.
The Confederation of British Industry (CBI) survey is expected to show the headline balance gauge rose from minus 32 percent in July to minus 22 percent in August.
In the US, new jobless claims for the August 17 week are expected to come in at 234,000 versus a lower-than-expected 227,000 in the prior week.
The Chicago Fed national activity index is expected to fall to minus 0.20 in July from plus 0.05 in June, when it slipped from plus 0.23 in May as all four main components declined.
In the US PMI report for August, manufacturing is seen steady at 49.5 versus July's 49.6. Services held steady in July at 55.0, with the consensus for August a point lower at 54.0. The composite is also seen a point lower, at 53.3.
Existing home sales in July are expected to edge higher to a 3.90 million rate after June's 3.89 and May's 4.11 million annualized rates. The National Association of Realtors has noted that resales are slowly shifting from a seller's market to a buyer's market.
The Eurozone consumer confidence index for August, due at 10 a.m. EDT (1400 GMT), is expected to hold unchanged at July's minus 13.0 which was a full point above June and a half point above the consensus.
New Zealand, retail sales volumes are forecast to fall 0.8 percent on quarter in the April-June period after posting their first increase in just over two years in January-March, when they rebounded 0.5 percent after falling 1.8 percent in the previous quarter. Last week, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand lowered the official cash rate by 25 basis points to 5.50 percent for its first rate cut in this rate since March 2020 in light of easing inflation and slowing consumer spending.
Consumer inflation in Japan is expected to continue accelerating slightly in the core reading in July, reflecting the full impact of a scheduled end to the 18-month utility subsidies, while easing in two of the three key measures, thanks to slowing processed food markups. The government plans to revive a similar scheme for three months ending in October when high temperatures are expected to boost the use of air conditioners, which would temporarily lower inflation.
The core CPI (excluding fresh food prices), key to the Bank of Japan's policy stance, is forecast to rise 2.7 percent on year after the pace of increase picked up to 2.6% in June from 2.5 percent in May and 2.2 percent in April. The year-over-year increase in the total CPI is forecast at 2.7 percent in July, down slightly from 2.8 percent seen in the previous two months. Underlying inflation measured by the core-core CPI (excluding fresh food and energy) is also expected to moderate to 1.9 percent after picking up to 2.2 percent in June from 2.1 percent in May.
Definition
Market Focus details key factors in the coming day that will impact the economic outlook and the financial markets. These include central bank events, economic indicators, policymaker speeches as well as expected political and corporate developments.
Description
Keeping up-to-date with event schedules and the economic calendar is key to understanding the global financial system. Econoday's Market Focus allows investors and policymakers to carefully track what will be making news and moving the financial markets in the coming day.
