ConsensusActualPrevious
Level51.450.951.2

Highlights

UK manufacturing Index was marginally weaker than originally reported in June. At 50.9 it is down slightly from May's 22-month high of 51.2 and below the earlier flash estimate of 51.4.

Still, the PMI has posted above the 50-growth threshold in the last two months. This suggests an expansion of the industry and an increase in output and new orders. New order growth was boosted by an increase in demand, greater levels of market activity, product promotions, and an end of destocking for some clients. In contrast, stocks of purchases and employment both decreased.

Business optimism stays close to May's high and while some firms noted feeling uncertain due to the forthcoming General Election, others expected this to reduce following its conclusion.

The latest results put the UK RPI at minus 20 and the RPI-P at minus 25. Overall economic activity is falling behind market expectations

Market Consensus Before Announcement

No revision is expected to the flash data.

Definition

The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) provides an estimate of manufacturing business activity for the preceding month by using information obtained from a representative sector survey incorporating around 3,000 companies. Results are synthesised into a single index which can range between zero and 100. A reading above (below) 50 signals rising (falling) activity versus the previous month and the closer to 100 (zero) the faster is activity growing (contracting). The survey covers more than 600 industrial companies and is compiled by the Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply (CIPS) and S&P Global.

Description

Investors need to keep their fingers on the pulse of the economy because it dictates how various types of investments will perform. By tracking economic data such as the ISM manufacturing index in the U.S. and the and S&P Global PMIs elsewhere, investors will know what the economic backdrop is for the various markets. The stock market likes to see healthy economic growth because that translates to higher corporate profits. The bond market prefers less rapid growth and is extremely sensitive to whether the economy is growing too quickly and causing potential inflationary pressures.

The PMI manufacturing data give a detailed look at the manufacturing sector, how busy it is and where things are headed. Since the manufacturing sector is a major source of cyclical variability in the economy, this report has a big influence on the markets. And its sub-indexes provide a picture of orders, output, employment and prices.
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