Highlights
The calendar for this week does not offer crucial inflation or wage data for the US or Canadian central bank policymakers who are still battling to bring inflation back to their respective 2 percent target. The earliest timing for a rate cut by the Bank of Canada and the European Central Bank still appears to be in June but that's not a done deal yet. The timing for a Fed rate cut is more uncertain.
No public speeches by Federal Reserve officials are scheduled during the April 22 week due to the usual communications blackout ahead of the April 30-May 1 meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee and following last week's warning from Chairman Jerome Powell that the Fed needs more evidence before cutting interest rates. The US first quarter GDP data on Thursday is expected to show a slower but still solid growth rate above 2 percent versus a strong 3.4 percent rise in the fourth quarter.
The Bank of Japan will also enter its own media blackout period on Monday prior to its April 25-26 policy meeting where the nine-member board is widely expected to stand pat after conducting the bank's first rate hike in 17 years last month. Governor Kazuo Ueda has predicted that the next rate hike will be possible from the summer to fall (normally June to October) if wages data support such a move. The yen remains under downward pressure. After a Group of Seven meeting in Washington, Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki stressed that he and his US and South Korean counterparts shared their concern about the recent sharp depreciation of the yen and won. The Ministry of Finance currency intervention team seems to be standing by for a better timing to step in when yen short positions build up and markets start to speculate for the next BoJ rate hike and lower US inflation figures.
On Monday's relatively thin data calendar, the European Commission's consumer confidence in April is expected to improve to minus 14.3 from March's minus 14.9, which was 6 tenths better than February but once again well short of the minus 11.7 long-run average.
The Chicago Fed national activity index for March is expected to be little changed after an unexpected rise to plus 0.05 in February from a downwardly revised minus 0.54 in January.
No public speeches by Federal Reserve officials are scheduled during the April 22 week due to the usual communications blackout ahead of the April 30-May 1 meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee and following last week's warning from Chairman Jerome Powell that the Fed needs more evidence before cutting interest rates. The US first quarter GDP data on Thursday is expected to show a slower but still solid growth rate above 2 percent versus a strong 3.4 percent rise in the fourth quarter.
The Bank of Japan will also enter its own media blackout period on Monday prior to its April 25-26 policy meeting where the nine-member board is widely expected to stand pat after conducting the bank's first rate hike in 17 years last month. Governor Kazuo Ueda has predicted that the next rate hike will be possible from the summer to fall (normally June to October) if wages data support such a move. The yen remains under downward pressure. After a Group of Seven meeting in Washington, Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki stressed that he and his US and South Korean counterparts shared their concern about the recent sharp depreciation of the yen and won. The Ministry of Finance currency intervention team seems to be standing by for a better timing to step in when yen short positions build up and markets start to speculate for the next BoJ rate hike and lower US inflation figures.
On Monday's relatively thin data calendar, the European Commission's consumer confidence in April is expected to improve to minus 14.3 from March's minus 14.9, which was 6 tenths better than February but once again well short of the minus 11.7 long-run average.
The Chicago Fed national activity index for March is expected to be little changed after an unexpected rise to plus 0.05 in February from a downwardly revised minus 0.54 in January.
Definition
Market Focus details key factors in the coming day that will impact the economic outlook and the financial markets. These include central bank events, economic indicators, policymaker speeches as well as expected political and corporate developments.
Description
Keeping up-to-date with event schedules and the economic calendar is key to understanding the global financial system. Econoday's Market Focus allows investors and policymakers to carefully track what will be making news and moving the financial markets in the coming day.
