Highlights
The UK labour market report is expected to show the ILO unemployment rate rose to 4.0 percent in March from 3. 9 percent in February.
The ZEW monthly survey of financial experts in Germany is likely to show sentiment is improving. The current conditions index is expected to rise to minus 79.0 from March's minus 80.5, which was up more than a point from February and on the strong side of forecasts. The report's expectations component (economic sentiment) index is forecast at 34.0 versus March's 31.7, which marked a nearly 12-point jump and the highest level since February 2022. The expectations component has exceeded expectations for eight months in a row.
US housing starts in March are expected to fall back to a 1.480 million annual rate versus February's 1.521 million rate that was much higher than expected but followed a much lower-than-expected 1.374 million in January. Permits, at 1.518 million in February, are expected to hold steady at 1.541 million.
After edging 0.1 percent higher in February, industrial production is expected to rebound 0.4 percent in March. Manufacturing output is expected to rise an additional 0.3 percent after jumping 0.8 percent. Capacity utilization is expected to rise to 78.5 percent versus February's 78.3 percent.
Canadian housing starts are expected to slow to 245,000 in March versus February's larger-than-expected 253,468 and January's lower-than-expected 223,176.
Inflation in Canada is expected to show the road to the central bank's 2 percent target is bumpy. The CPI inflation annual rate is forecast to rise to 3. 0 percent in March from February's lower-than-expected to 2.8 percent, led by higher gasoline prices. On the month, the total CPI is seen up 0.7 percent after a 0.3 percent gain.
In its latest quarterly update, the Bank of Canada expects CPI inflation to be close to 3 percent during the first half of this year, move below 2.5 percent in the second half, and reach the 2 percent inflation target in 2025.
New Zealand's consumer prices are forecast to rise 0.6 percent on quarter in January-March, little changed from a 0.5 percent gain in October-December but the CPI annual rate is expected to decelerate sharply to 4.0 percent from 4.7 percent.
Japanese export values are forecast to rise 5.8 percent for a fourth straight year-over-year increase in March after rising 7.8 percent in February, backed by recovering global demand for semiconductors and plastics. Demand for automobiles from the US and Europe is also seen intact. Import values are expected to fall 7.2 percent, due mainly to lower energy prices, after rising 0.5 percent in February for the first rise in 11 months and slumping 9.8 percent in January.
The trade balance is forecast to show a 345.0 billion surplus after recording a revised ¥377.8 billion deficit in February. It would be the first positive figure since a ¥68.89 billion surplus seen in December 2023 and compare with a ¥750.9 billion deficit in March 2023 and a record shortfall of ¥3,506.43 billion (¥3.51 trillion) hit in January 2023.
The ZEW monthly survey of financial experts in Germany is likely to show sentiment is improving. The current conditions index is expected to rise to minus 79.0 from March's minus 80.5, which was up more than a point from February and on the strong side of forecasts. The report's expectations component (economic sentiment) index is forecast at 34.0 versus March's 31.7, which marked a nearly 12-point jump and the highest level since February 2022. The expectations component has exceeded expectations for eight months in a row.
US housing starts in March are expected to fall back to a 1.480 million annual rate versus February's 1.521 million rate that was much higher than expected but followed a much lower-than-expected 1.374 million in January. Permits, at 1.518 million in February, are expected to hold steady at 1.541 million.
After edging 0.1 percent higher in February, industrial production is expected to rebound 0.4 percent in March. Manufacturing output is expected to rise an additional 0.3 percent after jumping 0.8 percent. Capacity utilization is expected to rise to 78.5 percent versus February's 78.3 percent.
Canadian housing starts are expected to slow to 245,000 in March versus February's larger-than-expected 253,468 and January's lower-than-expected 223,176.
Inflation in Canada is expected to show the road to the central bank's 2 percent target is bumpy. The CPI inflation annual rate is forecast to rise to 3. 0 percent in March from February's lower-than-expected to 2.8 percent, led by higher gasoline prices. On the month, the total CPI is seen up 0.7 percent after a 0.3 percent gain.
In its latest quarterly update, the Bank of Canada expects CPI inflation to be close to 3 percent during the first half of this year, move below 2.5 percent in the second half, and reach the 2 percent inflation target in 2025.
New Zealand's consumer prices are forecast to rise 0.6 percent on quarter in January-March, little changed from a 0.5 percent gain in October-December but the CPI annual rate is expected to decelerate sharply to 4.0 percent from 4.7 percent.
Japanese export values are forecast to rise 5.8 percent for a fourth straight year-over-year increase in March after rising 7.8 percent in February, backed by recovering global demand for semiconductors and plastics. Demand for automobiles from the US and Europe is also seen intact. Import values are expected to fall 7.2 percent, due mainly to lower energy prices, after rising 0.5 percent in February for the first rise in 11 months and slumping 9.8 percent in January.
The trade balance is forecast to show a 345.0 billion surplus after recording a revised ¥377.8 billion deficit in February. It would be the first positive figure since a ¥68.89 billion surplus seen in December 2023 and compare with a ¥750.9 billion deficit in March 2023 and a record shortfall of ¥3,506.43 billion (¥3.51 trillion) hit in January 2023.
Definition
Market Focus details key factors in the coming day that will impact the economic outlook and the financial markets. These include central bank events, economic indicators, policymaker speeches as well as expected political and corporate developments.
Description
Keeping up-to-date with event schedules and the economic calendar is key to understanding the global financial system. Econoday's Market Focus allows investors and policymakers to carefully track what will be making news and moving the financial markets in the coming day.
