The CBI's new trends survey found orders still falling at the start of the second quarter. At minus 23 percent, April's orders balance was 5 percentage points short of its March print and 8 percentage points below the market consensus. Following gains in both February and March, this month's setback left the measure at a 3-month low and well below its long-run average (minus 13 percent).

However, the broader quarterly survey was rather more positive. Hence, past output (3 percent after minus 10 percent in the three months to January) posted a modest rise and growth is expected to accelerate over the coming three months (11 percent). Moreover, overall business sentiment (9 percent after minus 3 percent) was positive and export optimism (20 percent after minus 20 percent) improved markedly. However, selling prices (10 percent after 2 percent) picked up and are expected to rise more quickly this quarter (27 percent).

The CBI noted that manufacturing conditions have taken a turn for the better and pointed out that concerns about access to materials and components are now at their lowest since January 2020. As a result, it expects a more stable picture for investment over the year ahead. Even so, the April results are in line with yesterday's PMI survey in painting a still subdued picture of demand. More generally, today's update trims the UK RPI to minus 4 and the RPI-P to minus 14 meaning that overall economic activity is beginning to slip behind market forecasts again.

The orders balance is expected to rise from minus 18 percent in March to minus 15 percent in April.

The Confederation of British Industry (CBI) produces a monthly survey (and a more detailed quarterly report) analysing the performance of UK manufacturing industry. This is the UK's longest running qualitative business tendency survey. Questions relate to domestic and export orders, stocks, price and output expectations with the main market focus being the domestic orders balance. The survey is seen as a loose leading indicator of the official industrial production data.

Started in 1958, this is the UK's longest-running private sector qualitative business tendency survey. The survey is used by policy makers along with those in the business community, academics and top analysts in financial markets. One of its key strengths is that it is released within ten days and prior to official statistics and includes data not covered by official sources. It is never revised. The data are also used by the European Commission's harmonized business survey of EU countries.

Frequency
Monthly and quarterly