Initial jobless claims rose 9,000 to 221,000 in the March 30 week after a small upward revision to 212,000 in the prior week. The level of new claims is above the consensus of 213,000 in the Econoday survey of forecasters.

The size of the increase reflects a mismatch in seasonal adjustment factors which anticipated a small decrease in claims. Unadjusted claims rose 2,455 to 196,376 in the March 30 week. Seasonal adjustment can be difficult with a moving holiday associated with the Easter and Passover observances, which can be aggravated by when schools opt to take their spring break. For the next few weeks, the four-week moving average may be a better gauge of movement in initial jobless claims. In the March 30 week, the four-week moving average rose 2,750 to 214,250 after 211,500 in the prior week.

Insured jobless claims were little changed in the March 23 week, down 19,000 to 1.791 million after 1.810 million in the prior week. The four-week moving average was essentially the same after rounding to 1.800 million in the March 23 week. The insured rate of unemployment was 1.2 percent in the March 23 week where it has been since March 2023. For those on the unemployment rolls, conditions remain consistent with a healthy labor market able to absorb laid off workers. Overall unemployment is low for those eligible for unemployment benefits.

Jobless claims for the March 30 week are expected to come in at 213,000 versus 210,000 in the prior week. Claims levels have been very steady the past couple of months.

New unemployment claims are compiled weekly to show the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time. An increasing (decreasing) trend suggests a deteriorating (improving) labor market. The four-week moving average of new claims smooths out weekly volatility.

Jobless claims are an easy way to gauge the strength of the job market. The fewer people filing for unemployment benefits, the more have jobs, and that tells investors a great deal about the economy. Nearly every job comes with an income that gives a household spending power. Spending greases the wheels of the economy and keeps it growing, so a stronger job market generates a healthier economy.

There's a downside to it, though. Unemployment claims, and therefore the number of job seekers, can fall to such a low level that businesses have a tough time finding new workers. They might have to pay overtime wages to current staff, use higher wages to lure people from other jobs, and in general spend more on labor costs because of a shortage of workers. This leads to wage inflation, which is bad news for the stock and bond markets. Federal Reserve officials are always on the look-out for inflationary pressures.

By tracking the number of jobless claims, investors can gain a sense of how tight, or how loose, the job market is. If wage inflation looks threatening, it's a good bet that interest rates will rise, bond and stock prices will fall, and the only investors in a good mood will be the ones who tracked jobless claims and adjusted their portfolios to anticipate these events.

Just remember, the lower the number of unemployment claims, the stronger the job market, and vice versa.