Consensus | Actual | Previous | |
---|---|---|---|
Bank Rate - Change | 0bp | 0bp | 0bp |
Bank Rate - Level | 5.25% | 5.25% | 5.25% |
Highlights
Predictably, the QT programme was left unamended with the MPC simply re-affirming its aim to reduce the stock of gilts held in the Asset Purchase Facility by £100 billion to £658 billion over the 12 months that began in October. In late-March, the overall stock stood at £729.9 billion, comprising just under £729.8 billion of gilts and £0.1 billion of sterling non-financial investment-grade corporate bonds.
The MPC acknowledged that inflation in February (3.4 percent) was weaker than expected and now sees it dipping below 2 percent this quarter, mainly due to one-off factors. It also noted that most indicators of short-term inflation expectations have continued to ease. However, the bank still forecasts prices to re-accelerate over the second half of the year as key indicators of inflation persistence remain elevated, particularly in services. MPC member remains suspicious about the reliability of the official labour market statistics but noted that the bank's own regional agents expect some decline in pay settlements this year and firms to have greater difficulty in passing on cost increases to prices. Even so, current wage growth remains high.
In terms of fiscal policy, the Spring Budget was thought likely to increase the level of GDP by only around 0.25 percent over coming years but since potential supply should also be raised, its implications for inflationary pressures were deemed insignificant.
Following a slightly steeper than expected drop in yesterday's February inflation report, the conditions are clearly falling into place for a cut in Bank Rate, a situation reflected in the change in this month's voting pattern. However, although current trends are favourable, there is work to do yet before either the core rate (4.5 percent) or the rate in services (6.1 percent) get close to the 2 percent target. A full-blown ease before June is now more possible but still looks unlikely.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Definition
Description
The Bank's monetary policy objective is to deliver price stability - low inflation - and, subject to that, to support the Government's economic objectives including those for growth and employment. A remit announced by the Chancellor in March 2013 hinted that the real economy may have a larger say in policy decisions going forward. Price stability is defined by the Government's medium-term inflation target of 2 percent, as measured by the annual change in the consumer price index. The foundation of the Bank's policy is the recognition of role of price stability in achieving economic stability more generally, and in providing the right conditions for sustainable growth in output and employment. The Government's inflation target is announced each year by the Chancellor of the Exchequer in the annual Budget statement.
As in the United States, market participants speculate about the possibility of an interest rate change at these meetings. If the outcome is different from expectations, the impact on British markets - and to some extent those in Europe - can be dramatic and far-reaching. The interest rate set by the Bank of England, serves as a benchmark for all other rates. A change in the rate translates directly through to all other interest rates from gilts (fixed interest government securities named after the paper on which they were once printed) to mortgage loans.
The Bank of England sets an interest rate (Bank Rate) at which it lends to financial institutions. This interest rate then affects the whole range of interest rates set by commercial banks, building societies and other institutions for their own savers and borrowers. It also tends to affect the price of financial assets, such as bonds and shares, and the exchange rate, which affect consumer and business demand in a variety of ways. Lowering or raising interest rates affects spending in the economy.
The level of interest rates affects the economy. Higher interest rates tend to slow economic activity; lower interest rates stimulate economic activity. Either way, interest rates influence the sales environment. In the consumer sector, few homes or cars will be purchased when interest rates rise. Furthermore, interest rate costs are a significant factor for many businesses, particularly for companies with high debt loads or who have to finance high inventory levels. This interest cost has a direct impact on corporate profits. The bottom line is that higher interest rates are bearish for the financial markets, while lower interest rates are bullish.