ConsensusActualPrevious
CPI - M/M0.2%0.3%0.6%
CPI - Y/Y3.6%3.8%3.7%
Core CPI - M/M0.3%-0.1%
Core CPI - Y/Y3.2%3.3%

Highlights

South Korea's headline consumer price index rose 3.8 percent on the year in October, up slightly from an increase of 3.7 percent in September and moving further above the Bank of Korea's 2.0 percent target. The index advanced 0.3 percent on the month after increasing just 0.6 percent previously.

The increase in headline inflation was largely driven by food prices. These rose just 0.2 percent on the month, but base effects, partly reflecting the timing of mid-autumn holidays, resulted in food price inflation accelerating from 5.1 percent to 6.7 percent. Transport costs also rose at a faster pace, up 2.0 percent on the year after a previous increase of 0.1 percent.

Underlying price pressures were also steady in October. Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose 3.2 percent on the year, down slightly from 3.3 percent in September, and advanced 0.3 percent on the month after a previous decline of 0.1 percent. Some categories of spending recorded smaller year-over-year price increases, including housing and utilities, communication, and health, while others were steady.

At its most recent policy meeting, held mid-October, the BoK left policy rates on hold for the sixth meeting in a row after they increased rates by a cumulative 275 basis points since late 2021. Officials noted then that higher food and energy prices had pushed up headline inflation in recent months but expressed confidence that it will fall over the rest of the year and in 2024. Today's data showing ongoing stability in underlying inflation will likely reinforce the case for policy to remain on hold in coming months.

Market Consensus Before Announcement

Consumer prices in October, which in September rose to 3.7 percent from August's 3.4 percent, are expected to edge back lower to 3.6 percent.

Definition

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure of the average price level of a fixed basket of goods and services purchased by consumers. Annual changes in the CPI represent the rate of inflation.

Description

An investor who understands how inflation influences the markets will benefit over those investors that do not understand the impact. Inflation is an increase in the overall prices of goods and services. The relationship between inflation and interest rates is the key to understanding how indicators such as the CPI influence the markets and your investments.

Inflation (along with various risks) basically explains how interest rates are set on everything from mortgages and auto loans to government securities. As the rate of inflation changes and as expectations on inflation change, the markets adjust interest rates. The effect ripples across stocks, bonds, commodities and your portfolio, often in a dramatic fashion.

By tracking inflation, whether high or low, rising or falling, investors can anticipate how different types of investments will perform. Over the long run, the bond market will rally (fall) when increases in the CPI are small (large). The equity market rallies with the bond market because low inflation promises low interest rates and is good for profits.
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