ConsensusActualPrevious
Rate6.4%6.4%6.4%

Highlights

The Eurozone labour market cooled in July. However, a 73,000 increase in joblessness to 10.944 million failed to reverse a steeper revised 99,000 drop in June and left the unemployment rate steady at 6.4 percent. This matched both the market consensus and the all-time low.

Regionally, the national rate edged up a tick in France to 7.4 percent and in Italy to 7.6 percent but was flat in Germany at 2.9 percent and 0.1 percentage point lower at 11.6 percent in Spain.

Despite the jump in joblessness, today's update shows that the Eurozone labour market as a whole remains very tight. This will not be wasted on the ECB's hawks who will inevitably see the record low jobless rate as an ongoing threat to inflation. The Eurozone ECDI now stands at minus 31 and the ECDI-P at minus 49, both measures showing overall economic activity still lagging market expectations by some distance.

Market Consensus Before Announcement

Consensus for July's unemployment rate is no change at 6.4 percent.

Definition

The unemployment rate measures the number of unemployed as a percentage of the labor force.

Description

Unemployment data are closely monitored by the financial markets. These data give a comprehensive report on the state of the economy and its future direction. A rising unemployment rate can be a warning sign of hard times while a low rate can be a warning of inflation as wages are bid up to attract labor.

Unemployment data are expressed in both a numerical value and as a percentage of the labor force. Generally, the definition of those unemployed follows that of the International Labour Organisation (ILO). It states that an unemployed person is one between the ages of 15 to 74 years of age who was not employed during the reference week, had actively sought work during the past four weeks and was ready to begin working immediately or within two weeks. The unemployment rate is the percentage of unemployed persons over the total number of active persons in the labor market. Active persons are those who are either employed or unemployed.

Eurostat provides an unemployment rate for each EU country as well as for the EMU and EU as a whole. It should be noted that the unemployment rate for a country will frequently differ with that reported by the national statistics agency. That is because of the varying interpretations of the ILO definition by member states and Eurostat.
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