| Actual | Previous | Revised | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Balance | €18.7B | €14.4B | €14.6B |
| Imports - M/M | -3.4% | 1.7% | 1.4% |
| Imports - Y/Y | -9.5% | -10.6% | -10.2% |
| Exports - M/M | 0.1% | -0.1% | 0.1% |
| Exports - Y/Y | 1.5% | -4.0% | -3.5% |
Highlights
Seasonally adjusted the merchandise trade balance was in a sizeable €18.7 billion surplus in June, up from May's upwardly revised €14.6 billion and its best performance since January 2021. Unadjusted, the black ink stood at €22.2 billion versus just €8.0 billion a year ago.
However, the headline improvement was largely due to the weakness of imports which fell 3.4 percent on the month, their first decline since March. Of note, import prices declined a record 11.4 percent on the year (energy prices minus 44.9 percent) following a 9.1 percent slide in May. Exports were up just a monthly 0.1 percent for a second successive month and were still 4.3 percent below the high seen in February. Sales to other EU countries rose 1.3 percent while imports were down 3.1 percent. Non-EU exports dropped 1.1 percent and imports 3.7 percent. Exports to Russia declined 2.3 percent on the month and 41.1 percent on the year while imports were up 16.5 percent versus May but down 91.3 percent versus June 2022.
Today's update leaves the German ECDI at minus 4 and the ECDI-P at minus 5, both measures showing overall economic activity moving much as expected.
However, the headline improvement was largely due to the weakness of imports which fell 3.4 percent on the month, their first decline since March. Of note, import prices declined a record 11.4 percent on the year (energy prices minus 44.9 percent) following a 9.1 percent slide in May. Exports were up just a monthly 0.1 percent for a second successive month and were still 4.3 percent below the high seen in February. Sales to other EU countries rose 1.3 percent while imports were down 3.1 percent. Non-EU exports dropped 1.1 percent and imports 3.7 percent. Exports to Russia declined 2.3 percent on the month and 41.1 percent on the year while imports were up 16.5 percent versus May but down 91.3 percent versus June 2022.
Today's update leaves the German ECDI at minus 4 and the ECDI-P at minus 5, both measures showing overall economic activity moving much as expected.
Definition
The merchandise trade balance measures the difference between imports and exports of goods. The level of the international trade balance, as well as changes in exports and imports, indicate trends in foreign trade and can offer a guide to an economy's competitiveness.
Description
Changes in the level of imports and exports, along with the difference between the two (the trade balance) are a valuable gauge of economic trends here and abroad. While these trade figures can directly impact all financial markets, they primarily affect currency values in foreign exchange markets.
Imports indicate demand for foreign goods and services in Germany. Exports show the demand for German goods in countries overseas. Given the size of the German economy, the euro can be sensitive to changes in the trade balance. The bond market is also sensitive to the risk of importing inflation. This report gives a breakdown of trade with major countries as well, so it can be instructive for investors who are interested in diversifying globally. For example, a trend of accelerating exports to a particular country might signal economic strength and investment opportunities in that country.
Imports indicate demand for foreign goods and services in Germany. Exports show the demand for German goods in countries overseas. Given the size of the German economy, the euro can be sensitive to changes in the trade balance. The bond market is also sensitive to the risk of importing inflation. This report gives a breakdown of trade with major countries as well, so it can be instructive for investors who are interested in diversifying globally. For example, a trend of accelerating exports to a particular country might signal economic strength and investment opportunities in that country.
