ActualPreviousConsensus
CPI - M/M0.6%0.2%
CPI - Y/Y6.3%6.6%6.5%
Core CPI - M/M0.0%0.8%
Core CPI - Y/Y5.5%5.5%

Highlights

Singapore's headline consumer price index rose 6.3 percent on the year in February, down from from the 6.6 percent increase recorded in January, and rose 0.6 percent on the month after an increase of 0.2 percent previously. The Monetary Authority of Singapore's preferred measure of core inflation, which excludes the cost of accommodation and private road transport, was unchanged at 5.5 percent and was flat on the month after advancing 0.8 percent previously.

MAS officials expect core inflation to"remain elevated" in the first half of this year before moderating in the second half. An increase in the goods and services tax this year will deliver a one-off increase in prices, and officials forecast that core inflation will average between 3.5 percent and 4.5 percent in 2023 when the impact of the tax increase is included, and average between 2.5 percent and 3.5 percent when that impact is excluded.

At their semi-annual policy review mid-October officials tightened policy by adjusting the mid-point of the band in which Singapore's nominal effective exchange rate can move, effectively allowing the exchange rate to move in a higher range. They expressed confidence that the policy tightening put in place in recent meetings should reduce imported inflation and help curb domestic cost pressures. Their next meeting is scheduled to take place mid-April, though officials implemented an off-schedule change in policy settings in July last year.

Market Consensus Before Announcement

Consumer prices in February, which in January came in at 6.6 percent, are expected to edge lower to 6.5 percent.

Definition

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the average price changes in a fixed basket of consumption goods and services commonly purchased by the resident households over time. It is commonly used as a measure of consumer price inflation.

The CPI is rebased once every five years to reflect the latest consumption patterns and composition of goods and services consumed by resident households. The weighting pattern for the 2014-based CPI was derived from the expenditure values collected in the Household Expenditure Survey (HES) which was conducted from October 2012 to September 2013. These expenditure values were updated to 2014 values by taking into account price changes between 2012/13 and 2014.

The CPI covers only consumption expenditure incurred by resident households. It excludes non-consumption expenditures such as loan repayments, income taxes, purchases of houses, shares, and other financial assets etc.

Description

An investor who understands how inflation influences the markets will benefit over those investors that do not understand the impact. Inflation is an increase in the overall prices of goods and services. The relationship between inflation and interest rates is the key to understanding how indicators such as the CPI influence the markets and your investments.

Inflation (along with various risks) basically explains how interest rates are set on everything from mortgages and auto loans to government securities. As the rate of inflation changes and as expectations on inflation change, the markets adjust interest rates. The effect ripples across stocks, bonds, commodities and your portfolio, often in a dramatic fashion.

By tracking inflation, whether high or low, rising or falling, investors can anticipate how different types of investments will perform. Over the long run, the bond market will rally (fall) when increases in the CPI are small (large). The equity market rallies with the bond market because low inflation promises low interest rates and is good for profits.
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