Recent History | |||||||
On Feed | Placements | Marketings | On Feed | ||||
Month | Million Head | % YoY | Million Head | % YoY | Million Head | % YoY | 90+ Days |
Aug-22 | 11.289 | 101.9% | 2.110 | 100.3% | 2.004 | 106.4% | 6.223 |
Sep-22 | 11.342 | 101.0% | 2.080 | 96.2% | 1.860 | 104.0% | 6.012 |
Oct-22 | 11.509 | 99.6% | 2.085 | 92.8% | 1.804 | 100.7% | 5.717 |
Nov-22 | 11.736 | 98.2% | 1.905 | 96.8% | 1.891 | 101.2% | 5.621 |
Dec-22 | 11.693 | 97.6% | 1.784 | 90.8% | 1.741 | 93.9% | 5.787 |
Jan-23 | 11.682 | 97.0% | 1.932 | 96.4% | 1.847 | 104.2% | 6.073 |
Feb-23 | 11.704 | 95.9% | - | - | - | - | 6.257 |
Cattle on Feed Estimates | |||||
Estimates | |||||
As Of | Average | Low | High | Last Year | |
On Feed | Feb | 96.5% | 95.7% | 99.5% | 100.8% |
Placements | Jan | 97.1% | 95.5% | 99.7% | 98.8% |
Marketings | Jan | 103.9% | 102.7% | 104.6% | 96.9% |
Highlights
The USDA Cattle on Feed report showed placements for the month of January at 96.4% versus trade expectations for 97.1% of a year ago with a range of 95.5%-99.7% range. Marketings came in at 104.2% of last year as compared with the average estimate of 103.9% and a rage of 102.7% - 104.9%. The Cattle on Feed supply as of February 1st came in at 95.9% of last year as compared with trade expectations for 96.5% with a range of 95.7% to 99.5%.
Analysis: With placements coming in below trade expectations and marketing's a bit higher than expected, the report is supportive against trade expectations. The sharp drop in weights is keeping beef production low, and the placements are low enough to keep a supportive supply Outlook for the first half of the year. June cattle posted contract highs for the fourth session in a row before closing lower on the day and this is a sweeping key reversal from an overbought condition. Key support levels are back at 159.50 and 158.75.