ConsensusActualPrevious
Composite Index48.849.347.8
Services Index49.149.848.5

Highlights

The economy proved a little stronger than originally thought at year-end. The 48.8 flash composite output index was raised to 49.3 in the final data, now 1.5 points stronger than its final November reading, a 5-month high, and close enough to the 50-expansion threshold to indicate near-stagnation.

Service sector activity was also less weak than previously reported with the 49.1 flash sector PMI being revised up to 49.8, a 4-month peak. New business fell for a sixth successive month but at least the rate of decline was the most shallow in five months. Backlogs were also trimmed but this in part reflected further modest gains in employment. Business confidence remained historically subdued but still claimed a 4-month high.

Inflation pressures in services remained elevated but the rate of increase in input costs and output prices still eased to 11- and 4-month lows respectively.

Regionally in terms of national composite output indices, the best performing member state was Spain (49.9) which was just above Italy (49.6), France (49.1) and Germany (49.0).

The revised PMI data suggest that a probable contraction in Eurozone fourth quarter real GDP will be only mild. However, with demand still falling, near-term prospects remain grim and the economy could well be in recession by the end of the current period. That said, today's update puts both the ECDI and ECDI-P at 3, signalling that overall economic activity is at least performing much as the forecasters anticipated.

Market Consensus Before Announcement

No revisions are expected to the flash data.

Definition

The Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) provides an estimate of private sector output for the preceding month by combining information obtained from surveys of the manufacturing and service sectors of the economy. Results are synthesised into a single index which can range between zero and 100. A reading above (below) 50 signals rising (falling) output versus the previous month and the closer to 100 (zero) the faster is output growing (contracting). The report also contains the final estimate of the services PMI. The data are provided by S&P Global using a representative sample of around 5,000 manufacturing and services companies, the former including Germany, France, Italy, Spain, the Netherlands, Austria, the Republic of Ireland and Greece and the latter Germany, France, Italy, Spain and the Republic of Ireland.

Description

Investors need to keep their fingers on the pulse of the economy because it dictates how various types of investments will perform. By tracking economic data such as the purchasing managers' manufacturing indexes, investors will know what the economic backdrop is for the various markets. The stock market likes to see healthy economic growth because that translates to higher corporate profits. The bond market prefers less rapid growth and is extremely sensitive to whether the economy is growing too quickly and causing potential inflationary pressures.
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