US: Cattle On Feed

Highlights
The USDA pegged Dec-22 cattle on feed supply at 97.4% of last year. Placements during Nov-22 came in at 97.9% of last year and Marketings were 101.2% of last year.

The USDA Cattle on Feed report showed placements for the month of November at 97.9% versus trade expectations for 95.4% of last year, with a range of 91.8% to 98%. Marketings came in at 101.2% of last year as compared with the average estimate of 100.9% (range 99.9%-101.3%). The Cattle on Feed supply as of December 1st came in at 97.4% as compared with trade expectations for 97.1% (range 96.5%-97.6%).

Analysis: The placements of cattle into feedlots for the month came in a bit higher than expected, and this is a slight negative to the April contract. On the other hand, marketing's came in at the high-end of trade expectations and this suggests producers are a little more current with marketing's than expected. This is slightly positive to the February contract. The market seems to have the tightening supply set-up to remain in a bull market.

Definition
This file contains the monthly total number of cattle and calves on feed, placements, marketings, and other disappearances; by class and feedlot capacity for selected states; number of feedlots and fed cattle marketings by size groups for selected states. Data is organized by state and by U.S.

Description
This report offers a timely update on the current makeup of the beef cattle herd. It is probably the most-watched of the USDA reports for the cattle markets and can be a market-moving event if it contains a surprise. The marketings number provides an indicator of recent demand and has the ability to affect the price of nearby futures contracts. The placements number offers insight on the future supply of market ready cattle and has a tendency to affect the deferred contracts. Cattle are placed on feed for anywhere from 90 to 180 days, so a large placements number in June would project large market-ready supply in the fall. Both the placements and the marketings numbers inform the on feed number, which is a measure of current supply. The report offers state-by-state breakdowns as well by various weight groupings, providing an opportunity for further, in-depth analysis. Cattle on Feed reports are usually released on Friday afternoons after the cattle futures market closes, and the results will be reflected on the opening the following Monday morning.