US: Export Sales


October 15, 2021 07:30 CDT

Weekly Export Sales Estimates
RangeLast
Current & Next YearLowHighWeekYear
Corn7001,6001265655
Soybeans6001,40010422577
Soybean Meal100320368152
Soybean Oil-535392
Wheat200500333600
Export Sales Summary
EndingWeekly Sales 1000 MT (Cotton in 1000 RB)Sales Needed Per Week to Meet USDA Est.Current Yr % of USDA Est5 Yr. Avg. % of USDA Est
Soybeans - 2021/2022 Marketing Year
Oct-071,147.8650.746.4%50.7%
Sep-301,041.9661.148.1%48.1%
Sep-231,007.6668.944.8%44.8%
Sep-16902.9675.741.4%41.4%
Sep-091,264.2680.238.3%38.3%
Soymeal - 2022/2023 Marketing Year
Oct-07365.4172.631.5%28.3%
Sep-30369.6193.926.7%26.7%
Sep-23162.9211.921.7%21.7%
Sep-16216.4210.919.3%19.3%
Sep-0942.4211.017.1%17.1%
Bean Oil - 2022/2023 Marketing Year
Oct-0719.89.118.4%17.3%
Sep-3036.010.214.0%14.0%
Sep-2322.411.19.0%9.0%
Sep-160.011.38.2%8.2%
Sep-096.111.16.7%6.7%
Corn - 2021/2022 Marketing Year
Oct-071,039.9765.743.5%32.4%
Sep-301,265.1771.431.2%31.2%
Sep-23370.4781.529.1%29.1%
Sep-16373.0773.327.3%27.3%
Sep-09246.6765.425.4%25.4%
Wheat - 2021/2022 Marketing Year
Oct-07567.6252.650.3%53.0%
Sep-30333.2259.151.5%51.5%
Sep-23290.1260.749.8%49.8%
Sep-16355.9261.348.1%48.1%
Sep-09617.1263.146.4%46.4%
Cotton - 2021/2022 Marketing Year
Oct-07146.7149.952.0%55.0%
Sep-30246.7149.853.9%53.9%
Sep-23571.4151.853.0%53.0%
Sep-16345.4160.251.9%51.9%
Sep-09284.8163.951.0%51.0%

Highlights
SOY COMPLEX
The Export Sales Report showed that for the week ending October 7, net soybean sales came in at 1,147,834 tonnes for the current marketing year and none for the next marketing year.1,147,834 Cumulative soybean sales have reached 46.4% of the USDA forecast for the 2021/2022 marketing year versus a 5 year average of 50.7%. Sales need to average 651,000 tonnes per week to reach the USDA forecast.

Net meal sales came in at 365,418 tonnes for the current marketing year and 651 for the next marketing year for a total of 366,069. Cumulative meal sales have reached 31.5% of the USDA forecast for the 2022/2023 marketing year versus a 5 year average of 28.3%. Sales need to average 173,000 tonnes per week to reach the USDA forecast.

Net oil sales came in at 19,782 tonnes for the current marketing year and none for the next marketing year.19,782 Cumulative oil sales have reached 18.4% of the USDA forecast for the 2022/2023 marketing year versus a 5 year average of 17.3%. Sales need to average 9,100 tonnes per week to reach the USDA forecast.

CORN
The Export Sales Report showed that for the week ending October 7, net corn sales came in at 1,039,883 tonnes for the current marketing year and 3,579 for the next marketing year for a total of 1,043,462. Cumulative sales have reached 43.5% of the USDA forecast for the 2021/2022 marketing year versus a 5 year average of 32.4%. Sales need to average 766,000 tonnes per week to reach the USDA forecast.

WHEAT
The Export Sales Report showed that for the week ending October 7, net wheat sales came in at 567,598 tonnes for the current marketing year and none for the next marketing year.567,598 Cumulative sales have reached 50.3% of the USDA forecast for the 2021/2022 marketing year versus a 5 year average of 53.0%. Sales need to average 253,000 tonnes per week to reach the USDA forecast.

COTTON
The Export Sales Report showed that for the week ending October 7, net cotton sales came in at 146,653 bales for the current marketing year and 10,648 for the next marketing year for a total of 157,301. Cumulative sales have reached 52.0% of the USDA forecast for the 2021/2022 marketing year versus a 5 year average of 55.0%. Sales need to average 150,000 bales per week to reach the USDA forecast.

Definition
The Export Sales Reporting Program monitors U.S. agricultural export sales on a daily and weekly basis.

The program requires U.S. exporters to report sales of certain commodities to FAS each week. Commodities currently covered by the program are wheat, wheat products, barley, corn, grain sorghum, oats, rye, rice, soybeans, soybean cake and meal, soybean oil, cotton, cottonseed, cottonseed cake and meal, cottonseed oil, sunflowerseed oil, flaxseed, linseed oil, cattle hides and skins, beef and pork. FAS publishes a weekly summary of export sales activity every Thursday at 8:30 a.m. Eastern time, unless a change is announced.

In addition to the weekly requirement, daily reporting is required when a single exporter sells 100,000 metric tons or more of wheat, corn, grain sorghum, barley, oats, soybeans, soybean cake or soybean meal, or 20,000 metric tons or more of of soybean oil, to a single destination on a single day. FAS issues a summary of daily sales at 9 a.m. Eastern time on the following business day. Daily sales are also included in the weekly report. (See the latest daily sales reports below, under News.)

Description
This report allows analysts to monitor export activity for US agricultural products, including actively -traded contracts like corn, wheat, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, cotton, pork and beef. The report tracks sales and physical exports for the week ending the prior Thursday.

Sales vs. Shipments
"Sales" are reported as they occur, which is often well ahead of the actual export date. They can be cancelled, too. Sales are sometimes reported for the following marketing year, and as the end of a year approaches, the sales for the next year increase. At the end of a given year, any sales that have not been shipped are moved into the next year's tally.

Analysts often track the amount of unshipped sales. If that number is unusually high, analysts may wonder about potential cancellations.

Similar to the Export Inspections report, analysts like to compare the current year's export sales pace with previous years. They also measure the pace of sales against the USDA's export forecast for the entire marketing year. For example, if cumulative US soybean export sales have reached 45% of the USDA's forecast for the entire marketing year, while the five-year average for that week was only 40%, it would suggest that exports are running stronger than what the USDA has forecast. This could draw an analyst to conclude that the USDA will revise its export forecast higher in future Supply/Demand (WASDE) reports.

This report also includes detail on which countries made the purchases. This includes "unknown," which analysts often infer to be China.

This report is not as timely as the Export Inspections report, as comes three days later and is a full week after the "as of" date. However, it covers many more products, including soybean meal, soybean oil, cotton, pork and several others. And because it presents sales as well as exports, it is more forward-looking.