US: Export Sales


November 13, 2020 07:30 CST

Weekly Export Sales Estimates
RangeLast
Current & Next YearLowHighWeekYear
Corn7001,6003152582
Soybeans8001,80015311242
Soybean Meal100400331346
Soybean Oil590731
Wheat200700597239
Export Sales Summary
EndingWeekly Sales 1000 MT (Cotton in 1000 RB)Sales Needed Per Week to Meet USDA Est.Current Yr % of USDA Est5 Yr. Avg. % of USDA Est
Soybeans - 2020/2021 Marketing Year
Nov-051,468.5233.683.3%54.1%
Oct-291,530.5261.952.2%52.2%
Oct-221,551.8290.349.8%49.8%
Oct-152,225.5317.947.0%47.0%
Oct-082,576.6358.744.6%44.6%
Soymeal - 2020/2021 Marketing Year
Nov-05145.3168.136.9%40.0%
Oct-29331.4167.737.2%37.2%
Oct-22199.3171.035.3%35.3%
Oct-15321.9171.633.2%33.2%
Oct-08152.2174.531.7%31.7%
Bean Oil - 2020/2021 Marketing Year
Nov-0588.018.426.8%28.2%
Oct-296.819.826.5%26.5%
Oct-226.019.624.6%24.6%
Oct-1537.019.321.2%21.2%
Oct-081.419.619.3%19.3%
Corn - 2020/2021 Marketing Year
Nov-05978.3582.857.9%35.7%
Oct-292,610.9591.834.1%34.1%
Oct-222,243.7637.032.1%32.1%
Oct-151,831.6672.130.9%30.9%
Oct-08655.2696.929.7%29.7%
Wheat - 2020/2021 Marketing Year
Nov-05300.5222.064.3%60.1%
Oct-29597.1223.858.2%58.2%
Oct-22743.2232.156.9%56.9%
Oct-15367.5243.354.8%54.8%
Oct-08528.5246.053.1%53.1%
Cotton - 2020/2021 Marketing Year
Nov-05236.8103.967.2%55.9%
Oct-29115.6106.954.7%54.7%
Oct-22288.7107.153.8%53.8%
Oct-15227.8111.152.8%52.8%
Oct-0898.9113.651.4%51.4%

Highlights
SOY COMPLEX
The Export Sales Report showed that for the week ending November 5, net soybean sales came in at 1,468,452 tonnes for the current marketing year and none for the next marketing year.1,468,452 Cumulative soybean sales have reached 83.3% of the USDA forecast for the 2020/2021 marketing year versus a 5 year average of 54.1%. Sales need to average 234,000 tonnes per week to reach the USDA forecast.

Net meal sales came in at 145,268 tonnes for the current marketing year and none for the next marketing year.145,268 Cumulative meal sales have reached 36.9% of the USDA forecast for the 2020/2021 marketing year versus a 5 year average of 40.0%. Sales need to average 168,000 tonnes per week to reach the USDA forecast.

Net oil sales came in at 88,008 tonnes for the current marketing year and none for the next marketing year.88,008 Cumulative oil sales have reached 26.8% of the USDA forecast for the 2020/2021 marketing year versus a 5 year average of 28.2%. Sales need to average 18,400 tonnes per week to reach the USDA forecast.

CORN
The Export Sales Report showed that for the week ending November 5, net corn sales came in at 978,329 tonnes for the current marketing year and none for the next marketing year.978,329 Cumulative sales have reached 57.9% of the USDA forecast for the 2020/2021 marketing year versus a 5 year average of 35.7%. Sales need to average 583,000 tonnes per week to reach the USDA forecast.

WHEAT
The Export Sales Report showed that for the week ending November 5, net wheat sales came in at 300,530 tonnes for the current marketing year and none for the next marketing year.300,530 Cumulative sales have reached 64.3% of the USDA forecast for the 2020/2021 marketing year versus a 5 year average of 60.1%. Sales need to average 222,000 tonnes per week to reach the USDA forecast.

COTTON
The Export Sales Report showed that for the week ending November 5, net cotton sales came in at 236,760 bales for the current marketing year and 14,784 for the next marketing year for a total of 251,544. Cumulative sales have reached 67.2% of the USDA forecast for the 2020/2021 marketing year versus a 5 year average of 55.9%. Sales need to average 104,000 bales per week to reach the USDA forecast.

Definition
The Export Sales Reporting Program monitors U.S. agricultural export sales on a daily and weekly basis.

The program requires U.S. exporters to report sales of certain commodities to FAS each week. Commodities currently covered by the program are wheat, wheat products, barley, corn, grain sorghum, oats, rye, rice, soybeans, soybean cake and meal, soybean oil, cotton, cottonseed, cottonseed cake and meal, cottonseed oil, sunflowerseed oil, flaxseed, linseed oil, cattle hides and skins, beef and pork. FAS publishes a weekly summary of export sales activity every Thursday at 8:30 a.m. Eastern time, unless a change is announced.

In addition to the weekly requirement, daily reporting is required when a single exporter sells 100,000 metric tons or more of wheat, corn, grain sorghum, barley, oats, soybeans, soybean cake or soybean meal, or 20,000 metric tons or more of of soybean oil, to a single destination on a single day. FAS issues a summary of daily sales at 9 a.m. Eastern time on the following business day. Daily sales are also included in the weekly report. (See the latest daily sales reports below, under News.)

Description
This report allows analysts to monitor export activity for US agricultural products, including actively -traded contracts like corn, wheat, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, cotton, pork and beef. The report tracks sales and physical exports for the week ending the prior Thursday.

Sales vs. Shipments
"Sales" are reported as they occur, which is often well ahead of the actual export date. They can be cancelled, too. Sales are sometimes reported for the following marketing year, and as the end of a year approaches, the sales for the next year increase. At the end of a given year, any sales that have not been shipped are moved into the next year's tally.

Analysts often track the amount of unshipped sales. If that number is unusually high, analysts may wonder about potential cancellations.

Similar to the Export Inspections report, analysts like to compare the current year's export sales pace with previous years. They also measure the pace of sales against the USDA's export forecast for the entire marketing year. For example, if cumulative US soybean export sales have reached 45% of the USDA's forecast for the entire marketing year, while the five-year average for that week was only 40%, it would suggest that exports are running stronger than what the USDA has forecast. This could draw an analyst to conclude that the USDA will revise its export forecast higher in future Supply/Demand (WASDE) reports.

This report also includes detail on which countries made the purchases. This includes "unknown," which analysts often infer to be China.

This report is not as timely as the Export Inspections report, as comes three days later and is a full week after the "as of" date. However, it covers many more products, including soybean meal, soybean oil, cotton, pork and several others. And because it presents sales as well as exports, it is more forward-looking.