US: Crop Progress


November 16, 2020 03:00 CST

US Crop Progress Estimates as of Nov 15, 2020
EstimatesPrevious
HightowerRangeLast WeekLast Year
Progress - Percent Completed
Corn Harvested9695 - 969176
Soybeans Harvested9695 - 989291
Winter Wheat Planted9796 - 999395
Conditions - Percent Good/Excellent
Winter Wheat Condition4645 - 474552
Crop Conditions Summary
Winter Wheat: Crop Condition
GoodExcellent 11/15 11/08 Change Last Yr. 10 Yr. High(Year) Low(Year) Yield Last Area
Select States 46 45 +1 52 53 78(2004) 35(2012) 51.7 30.550
Kansas 32 31 +1 48 49 89(1996) 20(1991) 47.0 6.700
Texas 30 34 -4 32 40 84(2004) 15(2001) 35.0 4.800
Oklahoma 55 52 +3 49 47 98(1987) 13(2012) 38.0 4.300
Colorado 25 24 +1 66 50 88(1998) 18(2010) 37.0 1.900
Crop Progress Summary
Corn: Percent Harvested
Harvested 11/15 11/08 Change Last Yr. 10 Yr. High(Year) Low(Year) Yield Last Area
Select States 95 91 +4 73 88 96(2015) 54(2009) 168. 92.006
Iowa 97 94 +3 73 90 100(1988) 59(2009) 198. 14.000
Illinois 99 95 +4 77 94 100(2015) 52(2009) 181. 10.900
Nebraska 96 93 +3 82 89 99(1988) 48(2009) 182. 9.800
Minnesota 97 93 +4 73 91 100(2003) 43(2009) 174. 8.100
Cotton: Percent Harvested
Harvested 11/15 11/08 Change Last Yr. 10 Yr. High(Year) Low(Year) Yield Last Area
Select States 69 61 +8 66 69 84(1993) 55(1986) 817. 12.185
Texas 68 62 +6 54 59 79(2011) 22(1986) 570. 6.615
Georgia 61 52 +9 78 71 93(1990) 44(2009) 915. 1.230
Oklahoma 54 42 +12 57 57 82(1999) 3(1986) 640. 0.640
Mississippi 91 85 +6 88 95 100(2010) 75(2002) 1097. 0.520
Soybeans: Percent Harvested
Harvested 11/15 11/08 Change Last Yr. 10 Yr. High(Year) Low(Year) Yield Last Area
Select States 96 92 +4 89 - 96(1998) 79(1985) 47.4 83.825
Illinois 99 96 +3 91 - 100(1991) 90(2009) 54.0 10.400
Iowa 99 98 +1 94 - 100(2006) 92(1985) 55.0 9.400
Minnesota 100 99 +1 95 - 100(2017) 92(2009) 44.0 7.400
North Dakota 100 100 0 81 - 100(2014) 80(2009) 32.0 6.000
Winter Wheat: Percent Planted
Planted 11/15 11/08 Change Last Yr. 10 Yr. High(Year) Low(Year) Yield Last Area
Select States 96 93 +3 94 - 96(2008) 89(2000) 51.7 30.550
Kansas 98 97 +1 97 - 100(2015) 93(2018) 47.0 6.700
Texas 86 82 +4 84 - 95(1986) 82(2015) 35.0 4.800
Oklahoma 100 95 +5 96 - 99(2008) 72(2000) 38.0 4.300
Colorado 100 99 +1 100 - 100(2019) 99(2009) 37.0 1.900

Highlights
Crop Conditions
Winter Wheat
Winter Wheat rated good / excellent (G/EX) as of November 15 was up 1% at 46% and poor / very poor was up 1% at 18%. Current G/EX is down 7% versus the 10 year average and Poor / Very Poor is up 6% versus the 10 year average. Of the top 18 states 7 reported better, 8 worse, and 3 unchanged G/EX ratings. Major producing states with improving conditions were Kansas 32%(+1%), Oklahoma 55%(+3%), Colorado 25%(+1%), Washington 68%(+5%). Declining conditions in major producing states were Texas 30%(-4%).

Crop Progress
Cotton
Cotton harvested as of November 15 was up 8% at 69%. This is up 3% versus last year and unchanged versus the 10 year average. The top producing states report Texas 68%(+6%), Georgia 61%(+9%), Oklahoma 54%(+12%), Mississippi 91%(+6%), Arkansas 95%(+6%).

Winter Wheat
Winter Wheat planted as of November 15 was up 3% at 96%. This is up 2% versus last year and up 97% versus the 10 year average. The top producing states report Kansas 98%(+1%), Texas 86%(+4%), Oklahoma 100%(+5%), Colorado 100%(+1%), Washington 99%(+1%).

Corn
Corn harvested as of November 15 was up 4% at 95%. This is up 22% versus last year and up 7% versus the 10 year average. The top producing states report Iowa 97%(+3%), Illinois 99%(+4%), Nebraska 96%(+3%), Minnesota 97%(+4%), Kansas 97%(+3%).

Soybeans
Soybeans harvested as of November 15 was up 4% at 96%. This is up 7% versus last year and up 97% versus the 10 year average. The top producing states report Illinois 99%(+3%), Iowa 99%(+1%), Minnesota 100%(+1%), North Dakota 100%(0%), Indiana 97%(+4%).

Definition
This full text file contains reports, issued weekly during the growing season (April to November), which lists planting, fruiting, and harvesting progress and overall condition of selected crops in major producing states. The data, summarized by crop and by state, are republished along with any revisions in the Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin. During the months of December through March, the report is issued monthly titled State Stories.

Description
These reports offer weekly analysis of the progress and condition of the crops. State-by-state data is provided, which is aggregated into a number that covers the key producing states that make up the majority of the US crop.

Crop Progress is measured by stages and percentage of completion. This includes percent planted, percent harvested, and several stages in between. Some the stages vary from crop to crop. For example, intermediate stages for corn include emergence, silk, dough, dent, and maturity, while the stages for soybeans include emergence, bloom, setting pods, and dropping leaves. The reports compare the current week with the same time the previous year and with the 5-year average.

Inclement weather in the spring can delay planting, which could ultimately lower the production for that year. For corn, producers may be forced to picker faster-growing but lower-yielding seed varieties if planting gets delayed. In some cases they may switch to soybeans, which have a shorter growing season. If it is excessively hot and dry during the corn silking stage, yields could drop, and a delayed start to the season could push silking later in the summer and increase the odds of that happening. A key stage to watch for soybeans in pod-filling, as excessively dry weather during that stage could result in smaller beans and lower yield. If the crops are late, there is an increased chance of frost before the plants have matured, which can also reduce yield.

Crop Conditions are measured by five categories: Excellent, Good, Fair, Poor and Very Poor. As a rule of thumb, analysts tend to focus on the percentage that is in the good and excellent categories (Good/Excellent) and to a lesser extent to Poor/Very Poor. The reports include data on the current week, the previous week, and a year prior.

Analysts look at the weekly conditions data during the growing season to get an idea on how the crop is performing relative previous years. If the crop conditions are poor, analysts may want to reduce their production estimates, and vice-versa if the crop conditions are strong. Analysts may also look at individual states' conditions in light of the weather those areas are experiencing.