US: Cattle On Feed


November 20, 2020 02:00 CST

Cattle on Feed Estimates
Estimates
As OfAverageLowHighLast Year
On FeedNov101.7%100.9%102.6%101.1%
PlacementsOct100.3%87.1%95.0%109.5%
MarketingsOct100.1%98.5%101.9%99.4%
Recent History
On FeedPlacementsMarketingsOn Feed
MonthMillion Head% YoYMillion Head% YoYMillion Head% YoY90+ Days
May-2011.20094.9%2.05299.5%1.51573.2%6.684
Jun-2011.67199.5%1.798102.1%1.969101.3%6.827
Jul-2011.43899.6%1.893111.0%1.99099.4%6.354
Aug-2011.284101.5%2.057109.2%1.89296.9%5.726
Sep-2011.394103.8%2.227105.9%1.846106.2%5.820
Oct-2011.717103.8%2.19289.0%1.87399.9%5.710
Nov-2011.973101.3%----5.673

Highlights
The USDA pegged Nov-20 cattle on feed supply at 101.3% of last year. Placements during Oct-20 came in at 89.0% of last year and Marketings were 99.9% of last year.

The Cattle on Feed Report was considered bullish for the 2021 contracts and slightly negative for the cash market. Placements for the month of October came in at 89% from trade expectations for 91.1% of last year (87.3-95.5 range). This will leave less market-ready cattle available during February and March. Marketing's during October came in at 99.9% of last year as compared with expectations near 100.2% of last year (98.5-102.4 range). This would suggest a few more cattle are available than expected early this month. As a result, the November 1 On-Feed supply came in at 101.3% of last year from expectations for 101.8% of last year, 100.9-102.6 range. The lower placements left the on-feed supply a bit lower than expected and the report is supportive.

Definition
This file contains the monthly total number of cattle and calves on feed, placements, marketings, and other disappearances; by class and feedlot capacity for selected states; number of feedlots and fed cattle marketings by size groups for selected states. Data is organized by state and by U.S.









Description
This report offers a timely update on the current makeup of the beef cattle herd. It is probably the most-watched of the USDA reports for the cattle markets and can be a market-moving event if it contains a surprise. The marketings number provides an indicator of recent demand and has the ability to affect the price of nearby futures contracts. The placements number offers insight on the future supply of market ready cattle and has a tendency to affect the deferred contracts. Cattle are placed on feed for anywhere from 90 to 180 days, so a large placements number in June would project large market-ready supply in the fall. Both the placements and the marketings numbers inform the on feed number, which is a measure of current supply. The report offers state-by-state breakdowns as well by various weight groupings, providing an opportunity for further, in-depth analysis. Cattle on Feed reports are usually released on Friday afternoons after the cattle futures market closes, and the results will be reflected on the opening the following Monday morning.