US: Crop Progress


August 3, 2020 03:00 CDT

US Crop Progress Estimates as of Aug 02, 2020
EstimatesPrevious
HightowerRangeLast WeekLast Year
Progress - Percent Completed
Spring Wheat Harvested95 - 1512
Winter Wheat Harvested8987 - 928182
Conditions - Percent Good/Excellent
Corn Condition7271 - 737257
Soybean Condition7271 - 737254
Spring Wheat Condition7070 - 717073
Crop Conditions Summary
Corn: Crop Condition
GoodExcellent 08/02 07/26 Change Last Yr. 10 Yr. High(Year) Low(Year) Yield Last Area
Select States 72 72 0 57 63 87(1986) 19(1988) 168. 92.006
Iowa 73 77 -4 66 66 99(1994) 13(1988) 198. 14.000
Illinois 76 74 +2 42 60 99(1986) 4(2012) 181. 10.900
Nebraska 77 75 +2 73 71 96(1986) 32(2002) 182. 9.800
Minnesota 85 84 +1 57 73 90(2010) 4(1988) 174. 8.100
Cotton: Crop Condition
GoodExcellent 08/02 07/26 Change Last Yr. 10 Yr. High(Year) Low(Year) Yield Last Area
Select States 45 49 -4 54 49 70(2004) 30(2011) 817. 12.185
Texas 25 31 -6 50 39 73(2010) 13(2011) 570. 6.615
Georgia 73 76 -3 62 58 90(1991) 5(1986) 915. 1.230
Oklahoma 69 77 -8 64 49 100(1988) 3(2011) 640. 0.640
Mississippi 65 68 -3 58 64 84(2002) 12(1993) 1097. 0.520
Soybeans: Crop Condition
GoodExcellent 08/02 07/26 Change Last Yr. 10 Yr. High(Year) Low(Year) Yield Last Area
Select States 73 72 +1 54 61 80(1994) 24(1988) 47.4 83.825
Illinois 76 76 0 42 59 94(1986) 10(2012) 54.0 10.400
Iowa 73 76 -3 64 66 97(1994) 20(1988) 55.0 9.400
Minnesota 84 84 0 61 71 87(2010) 4(1988) 44.0 7.400
North Dakota 65 63 +2 64 68 86(2010) 35(2017) 32.0 6.000
Spring Wheat: Crop Condition
GoodExcellent 08/02 07/26 Change Last Yr. 10 Yr. High(Year) Low(Year) Yield Last Area
Select States 73 70 +3 73 67 82(2010) 24(1989) 48.2 12.200
North Dakota 68 64 +4 76 73 87(1986) 9(1989) 49.0 6.000
Montana 80 80 0 68 56 78(2010) 9(2017) 37.0 3.000
Minnesota 76 75 +1 84 74 87(2010) 16(1991) 57.0 1.300
South Dakota 66 63 +3 66 52 79(1999) 8(2017) 43.0 0.850
Crop Progress Summary
Spring Wheat: Percent Harvested
Harvested 08/02 07/26 Change Last Yr. 10 Yr. High(Year) Low(Year) Yield Last Area
Select States 5 1 +4 2 12 57(1988) 2(2019) 48.2 12.200
North Dakota 2 1 +1 1 9 59(1988) 0(2015) 49.0 6.000
Montana 1 0 +1 1 6 34(1988) 0(2014) 37.0 3.000
Minnesota 7 1 +6 1 16 68(2012) 1(2019) 57.0 1.300
South Dakota 35 8 +27 4 39 93(1988) 3(2014) 43.0 0.850
Winter Wheat: Percent Harvested
Harvested 08/02 07/26 Change Last Yr. 10 Yr. High(Year) Low(Year) Yield Last Area
Select States 85 81 +4 80 87 93(2015) 78(1993) 51.7 30.550
Kansas 100 99 +1 99 100 100(2018) 91(1993) 47.0 6.700
Texas 100 100 0 100 100 100(2019) 96(2007) 35.0 4.800
Oklahoma 100 100 0 100 100 100(2019) 94(2007) 38.0 4.300
Colorado 99 97 +2 89 96 100(2012) 86(1993) 37.0 1.900

Highlights
Crop Conditions
Spring Wheat
Spring Wheat rated good / excellent (G/EX) as of August 02 was up 3% at 73% and poor / very poor was down 1% at 5%. Current G/EX is up 6% versus the 10 year average and Poor / Very Poor is down 5% versus the 10 year average. Of the top 6 states 4 reported better, 1 worse, and 1 unchanged G/EX ratings. Major producing states with improving conditions were North Dakota 68%(+4%), Minnesota 76%(+1%), South Dakota 66%(+3%). Declining conditions in major producing states were Idaho 83%(-5%).

Corn
Corn rated good / excellent (G/EX) as of August 02 was unchanged at 72% and poor / very poor was unchanged at 7%. Current G/EX is up 9% versus the 10 year average and Poor / Very Poor is down 7% versus the 10 year average. Of the top 18 states 9 reported better, 6 worse, and 3 unchanged G/EX ratings. Major producing states with improving conditions were Illinois 76%(+2%), Nebraska 77%(+2%), Minnesota 85%(+1%), Kansas 61%(+1%). Declining conditions in major producing states were Iowa 73%(-4%).

Soybeans
Soybeans rated good / excellent (G/EX) as of August 02 was up 1% at 73% and poor / very poor was unchanged at 6%. Current G/EX is up 12% versus the 10 year average and Poor / Very Poor is down 7% versus the 10 year average. Of the top 18 states 12 reported better, 4 worse, and 2 unchanged G/EX ratings. Major producing states with improving conditions were North Dakota 65%(+2%), Indiana 68%(+3%). Declining conditions in major producing states were Iowa 73%(-3%).

Cotton
Cotton rated good / excellent (G/EX) as of August 02 was down 4% at 45% and poor / very poor was unchanged at 16%. Current G/EX is down 4% versus the 10 year average and Poor / Very Poor is down 3% versus the 10 year average. Of the top 15 states 4 reported better, 10 worse, and 1 unchanged G/EX ratings. Major producing states with improving conditions were Arkansas 88%(+1%). Declining conditions in major producing states were Texas 25%(-6%), Georgia 73%(-3%), Oklahoma 69%(-8%), Mississippi 65%(-3%).

Crop Progress
Winter Wheat
Winter Wheat harvested as of August 02 was up 4% at 85%. This is up 5% versus last year and down 2% versus the 10 year average. The top producing states report Kansas 100%(+1%), Texas 100%(0%), Oklahoma 100%(0%), Colorado 99%(+2%), Washington 33%(+14%).

Spring Wheat
Spring Wheat harvested as of August 02 was up 4% at 5%. This is up 3% versus last year and down 7% versus the 10 year average. The top producing states report North Dakota 2%(+1%), Montana 1%(+1%), Minnesota 7%(+6%), South Dakota 35%(+27%), Idaho 7%(+6%).

Definition
This full text file contains reports, issued weekly during the growing season (April to November), which lists planting, fruiting, and harvesting progress and overall condition of selected crops in major producing states. The data, summarized by crop and by state, are republished along with any revisions in the Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin. During the months of December through March, the report is issued monthly titled State Stories.

Description
These reports offer weekly analysis of the progress and condition of the crops. State-by-state data is provided, which is aggregated into a number that covers the key producing states that make up the majority of the US crop.

Crop Progress is measured by stages and percentage of completion. This includes percent planted, percent harvested, and several stages in between. Some the stages vary from crop to crop. For example, intermediate stages for corn include emergence, silk, dough, dent, and maturity, while the stages for soybeans include emergence, bloom, setting pods, and dropping leaves. The reports compare the current week with the same time the previous year and with the 5-year average.

Inclement weather in the spring can delay planting, which could ultimately lower the production for that year. For corn, producers may be forced to picker faster-growing but lower-yielding seed varieties if planting gets delayed. In some cases they may switch to soybeans, which have a shorter growing season. If it is excessively hot and dry during the corn silking stage, yields could drop, and a delayed start to the season could push silking later in the summer and increase the odds of that happening. A key stage to watch for soybeans in pod-filling, as excessively dry weather during that stage could result in smaller beans and lower yield. If the crops are late, there is an increased chance of frost before the plants have matured, which can also reduce yield.

Crop Conditions are measured by five categories: Excellent, Good, Fair, Poor and Very Poor. As a rule of thumb, analysts tend to focus on the percentage that is in the good and excellent categories (Good/Excellent) and to a lesser extent to Poor/Very Poor. The reports include data on the current week, the previous week, and a year prior.

Analysts look at the weekly conditions data during the growing season to get an idea on how the crop is performing relative previous years. If the crop conditions are poor, analysts may want to reduce their production estimates, and vice-versa if the crop conditions are strong. Analysts may also look at individual states' conditions in light of the weather those areas are experiencing.