Thu May 31 04:00:00 CDT 2018

Consensus Actual Previous
Month over Month 0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
Year over Year 0.8% 1.1% 0.5%

Consumer prices provisionally rose 0.4 percent on the month in May. This raised the annual inflation rate by some 0.6 percentage points versus its final April print to 1.1 percent, equalling its strongest reading since August 2017.

The flash HICP was also up a monthly 0.4 percent, boosting its yearly rate from 0.6 percent to 1.1 percent.

The acceleration in the annual CPI rate was largely attributable to unprocessed food (2.7 percent after 0.7 percent) and non-regulated energy (5.3 percent after 2.7 percent). Transport (1.7 percent after minus 0.7 percent) and tobacco (3.4 percent after 2.8 percent) also contributed. As a result, core inflation, which excludes energy and unprocessed food, climbed 0.3 percentage points to 0.8 percent and so just more than reversed April's 0.2 percentage point fall.

The bounce in Italian inflation this month is in keeping with the spikes seen elsewhere in the Eurozone and will similarly have been boosted by favourable base effects. Underlying trends remain essentially flat.

The consumer price index (CPI) is a measure of the average price level of a fixed basket of goods and services purchased by consumers. Monthly and annual changes in the CPI provide widely used measures of inflation. A provisional estimate, with limited detail, is released about two weeks before the final data are reported.

The consumer price index is the most widely followed indicator of inflation. An investor who understands how inflation influences the markets will benefit over those investors that do not understand the impact. In countries such as the Italy where monetary policy decisions rest on the central bank's inflation target, the rate of inflation directly affects all interest rates charged to business and the consumer. As a member of the European Monetary Union, Italy's interest rates are set by the European Central Bank.

Italy like other EMU countries has both a national CPI and a harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP). Components and weights within the national CPI vary from other countries, reflecting national idiosyncrasies. The core CPI, which excludes fresh food, is usually the preferred indicator of short-term inflation pressures.

Inflation is an increase in the overall prices of goods and services. The relationship between inflation and interest rates is the key to understanding how indicators such as the CPI influence the markets - and your investments. As the rate of inflation changes and as expectations on inflation change, the markets adjust interest rates. The effect ripples across stocks, bonds, commodities, and your portfolio, often in a dramatic fashion.

By tracking inflation, whether high or low, rising or falling, investors can anticipate how different types of investments will perform. Over the long run, the bond market will rally (fall) when increases in the CPI are small (large). The equity market rallies with the bond market because low inflation promises low interest rates and is good for profits.