US: Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations

Wed Apr 11 09:00:00 CDT 2018

Actual Previous
Bus Infl Exp % Yr/Yr 2.3% 2.1%

Yesterday's producer price report showed the initial effects of tariffs on steel prices and today's unusual jump in business inflation expectations, up 2 tenths to a year-on-year 2.3 percent, may very well also reflect the tariff impact. April's result is the highest in the 7-year history of the survey.

Inflation expectations have until now been stubbornly flat for a Federal Reserve that is looking to push prices higher. Watch on Friday for an update on consumer expectations for inflation which have, like actual consumer prices as evidenced by today's CPI report, been moving higher though very slowly.

The Atlanta Fed's Business Inflation Expectations survey provides a monthly measure of year-ahead inflation expectations and inflation uncertainty from the perspective of firms. The survey also provides a monthly gauge of firms' current sales, profit margins, and unit cost changes.

The inflation expectations of firms are a critical component of the inflation outlook and provide guidance on the potential path of inflation. If firms expect that prices will increase at a given rate, their purchasing, pricing, and/or wage decisions will reflect this expectation, making the increase more likely to be realized.

Also important is the risk that firms attach to their inflation expectations. The methods the Atlanta Fed uses to compute firms' inflation expectations provide a direct measure of the subjective probabilities that firms assign to various inflation outcomes.

The FOMC judges that inflation at the rate of 2 percent, as measured by the annual change in the price index for personal consumption expenditures, is most consistent over the longer run with the Federal Reserve's statutory mandate. Accurately gauging inflation expectations and uncertainties regarding these expectations are a key component of achieving this 2 percent target.

Other measures of inflation expectations are gleaned from consumer opinions, financial market instruments, and select industry groups (such as professional forecasters and purchasing managers), but there are no alternative measures of firms' inflation expectations.

When business expectations for inflation deviate from the FOMC's 2 percent target for inflation over the medium term (higher or lower than target), or when uncertainty about inflation runs higher than normal, it could be an early signal that the Federal Reserve is at risk of missing its price stability mandate. The inflation mandate is balanced against a goal of sustainable long-term employment growth.