US: State Street Investor Confidence Index

Tue Apr 24 09:00:00 CDT 2018

Actual Previous Revised
State Street Investor Confidence Index 114.5 111.9 111.5

Global institutional investors continued to regain confidence and further increased their holding of equities in April, according to State Street, whose Investor Confidence Index based on actual portfolio holdings of their institutional clients rose to 114.5, up 3.0 points from March's downwardly revised reading of 111.5. The rise in confidence was broad-based, spanning all three regional sub-components, with the North American index rising 3.2 points to 112.3, the European index by 8.9 points to 110.9, and the Asian index by 3.1 points to 112.7. State Street noted that the global increases in equity holdings by institutional investors despite the recent challenges of heightened volatility and trade war fears reflects a general confidence in risky assets and echoes the strong start to the first quarter earnings season. Given recent somewhat disappointing economic data for Europe, the sharp gain for this region is particularly notable.

The State Street Investor Confidence Index measures confidence by looking at actual levels of risk in investment portfolios. This is not an attitude survey. The State Street Investor Confidence Index measures confidence directly by assessing the changes in investor holdings of equities. The more of their portfolio that institutional investors are willing to invest in equities, the greater their confidence. The report's main index is global and is based on activity in 45 countries. The report tracks more than 22 million transactions annually. There are three published components: North America, Europe and Asia-Pacific. The separate weightings of the three components vary month to month based on investment activity and are not published. Also included in the global index, but also not published, is activity in South America and the Middle East.

Conventional wisdom suggests investors are confident when stocks are rising and pessimistic when falling. But in fact, the State Street group notes prices tend to be higher when economic fundamentals are strong; i.e., when economic indicators are growing at a healthy clip. But a good investor confidence measure "should indicate whether, for a given set of fundamentals, investors are bullish or bearish on risky assets." State Street believes direct measurement, rather than a survey of portfolio managers who often don't have time to fill out monthly questionnaires, is a more reliable approach to sentiment assessment. The investor confidence index is compiled with techniques based on modern portfolio theory. According to State Street, "the more of their portfolios that professional investors are willing to devote to riskier as opposed to safer investments, the greater their risk appetite or confidence." So when investors choose to increase their holdings of risky assets, this confirms their confidence has increased. Incidentally, State Street believes investor confidence can exist in a bear market as well as a bull market. Since market players have become so enamored with consumer attitude surveys, it probably would be useful for both professional portfolio managers and amateur investors to consider investor attitudes.