US: Personal Income and Outlays

Mon Apr 30 07:30:00 CDT 2018

Consensus Consensus Range Actual Previous Revised
Personal Income - M/M change 0.4% 0.2% to 0.4% 0.3% 0.4% 0.3%
Consumer Spending - M/M change 0.4% 0.3% to 0.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0%
PCE Price Index -- M/M change 0.1% 0.0% to 0.2% 0.0% 0.2%
Core PCE price index - M/M change 0.2% 0.1% to 0.3% 0.2% 0.2%
PCE Price Index -- Y/Y change 2.0% 1.8% to 2.1% 2.0% 1.8% 1.7%
Core PCE price index - Yr/Yr change 2.0% 1.8% to 2.1% 1.9% 1.6%

Core inflation is suddenly very near the Federal Reserve's target, at a year-on-year 1.9 percent in March for a 3 tenths gain for this which is the most closely watched of all inflation indicators. But the gain reflects an easy comparison with March last year when a plunge in wireless service prices pulled readings down. The monthly gain for the core relative to February this year is only a modest 0.2 percent.

Turning to other readings in the report, consumer spending rose an as-expected 0.4 percent in the month though February is revised 2 tenths lower to no change. Spending on durables jumped 0.8 percent, reflecting March's big gain in auto sales, while spending on services, by far the largest consumer category, rose an outsized 0.6 percent. But spending on non-durables fell 0.4 percent for a second straight decline.

Income data are subdued in today's report, up only 0.3 percent on the month, which is just below Econoday's consensus, with the wages & salaries component rising only 0.2 percent and well down from 0.4 percent in February and 0.5 percent gains in the prior three months. The savings rate is also soft, down 2 tenths to 3.1 percent to suggest that March's rise in consumer spending came at the expense, at least to a degree, of savings.

The year-on-year core reading for this report is a shot across the bow for this week's FOMC meeting where no action is expected. And though it is fed by an easy comparison and may fall back in next month's report, the result will liven up the inflation debate especially at a time when capacity stress and import tariffs are emerging price factors. As for spending, the data for March, though solid, are offset by the February downgrade and follow only a 0.2 percent gain in January, making for a subdued quarter as evidenced by last week's GDP report where inflation-adjusted spending managed only a 1.1 percent annualized growth rate.

Market Consensus Before Announcement
Econoday's year-on-year consensus for the core PCE price index is expected to jump from 1.6 percent to 2.0 percent and suddenly hit the Federal Reserve's price target. Yet the expected monthly increase is a less spectacular 0.2 percent which would shift focus to the easy 2017 comparison for the yearly rate. The PCE price index is not expected to show much pressure at all, up only 0.1 percent on the month for a year-on-year rate of also 2.0 percent. Personal income is seen rising 0.4 percent while consumer spending is also expected to come in at 0.4 percent.

Personal income represents the income that households receive from all sources including wages and salaries, fringe benefits such as employer contributions to private pension plans, proprietors' income, income from rent, dividends and interest and transfer payments such as Social Security and unemployment compensation. Personal contributions for social insurance are subtracted from personal income.

Personal consumption expenditures are the major portion of personal outlays, which also include personal interest payments and transfer payments. Personal consumption expenditures are divided into durable goods, nondurable goods and services. These figures are the monthly analogues to the quarterly consumption expenditures in the GDP report, available in nominal and real (inflation-adjusted) dollars. Economic performance is more appropriately measured after the effects of inflation are removed.

Each month, the Bureau of Economic Analysis also compiles the personal consumption expenditure price index, also known as the PCE price index. This inflation index measures a basket of goods and services that is updated annually in contrast to the CPI, which measures a fixed basket.

The income and outlays data are another handy way to gauge the strength of the consumer sector in this economy and where it is headed. Income gives households the power to spend and/or save. Spending greases the wheels of the economy and keeps it growing. Savings are often invested in the financial markets and can drive up the prices of stocks and bonds. Even if savings simply go into a bank account, part of those funds typically is used by the bank for lending and therefore contributes to economic activity. In the past twenty years, the personal saving rate has diminished rapidly as consumers have spent a greater and greater share of their income. But that has reversed in part during the recession that began in 2008 as consumers have cut back on credit card use and have been rebuilding retirement accounts.

The consumption (outlays) part of this report is even more directly tied to the economy, which we know usually dictates how the markets perform. Consumer spending accounts for more than two-thirds of the economy, so if you know what consumers are up to, you'll have a pretty good handle on where the economy is headed. Investors can see how consumers are directing their spending, whether they are buying durable goods, nondurable goods or services. Needless to say, that's a big advantage for investors who determine which companies' shares they will buy.

The PCE price indexes have gained importance since the Fed announced a medium-term inflation goal of 2 percent based on the headline number on a year-on-year basis. The Fed forecasts inflation for both the headline PCE price index and the core rate (excluding food and energy).

Income is the major determinant of spending -- U.S. consumers spend roughly 95 cents of each new dollar. Consumer spending accounts directly for more than two-thirds of overall economic activity and indirectly influences capital spending, inventory investment and imports.

Increases (decreases) in income and consumption cause bond prices to fall (rally). As long as spending isn't inflationary, the stock market benefits because greater spending spurs corporate profits. Financial market participants pay somewhat less attention to personal consumption expenditures than to retail sales, which are released earlier in the month. However, they do closely monitor personal income and the PCE deflator.

Changes in personal income signal changes in consumer spending. For instance, a period of rapid income growth may signal future gains in personal consumption expenditures as well. Conversely, a period of declining income growth could signal an impending recession. While consumers often still must purchase necessities, discretionary purchases may decline, or moderate.

Consumers are more likely to increase spending when they see their stock portfolios increase in tandem with the stock market. When the stock market falls, spending is likely to decline because consumers feel less wealthy. Home prices and home equity have similar effects. Rising home prices boost the amount of equity consumers have in their homes. This allows access to Home Equity Line of Credit (HELOC) accounts. Plus consumers feel wealthier whether they have a HELOC account or not. When home prices decline, home equity falls and cuts into consumer spending.

Personal income is a comprehensive figure, but also incorporates taxes consumers must pay. By removing personal tax payments from personal income, we are left with disposable income. This is what consumers have left to spend on goods and services. Adjusting for inflation reveals growth in real disposable income.

On the inflation front, if PCE inflation is running below the Fed's goal of 2 percent inflation, that is seen as favorable toward Fed ease or neutral monetary policy. PCE inflation above 2 percent suggests that the Fed might be more inclined to raise policy rates.