Thu Mar 29 03:00:00 CDT 2018

Actual Previous
Month over Month 0.3% 0.8%
Year over Year 1.8% 1.8%

Producer prices rose 0.3 percent on the month in February to leave annual PPI inflation unchanged at 1.8 percent, equalling its lowest reading since September 2017.

The monthly increase in overall prices was led by energy which saw a 0.6 percent bounce and, without which, the PPI would have been just flat. Intermediates advanced 0.2 percent and capital goods edged 0.1 percent higher but gains here were offset by a 0.2 percent fall in consumer goods.

Having been roughly flat for some while, the trend in underlying producer prices has now turned down the annual rate of the ex-energy index has fallen from 2.0 percent last November to just 1.6 percent, a couple of ticks short of its January reading. This does not bode well for any meaningful acceleration in CPI inflation, currently running at only a 0.6 percent yearly rate.

The producer price indices (PPI) measure transaction prices, exclusive of VAT, for goods from industrial activities sold on the Italian market. Construction is excluded. Changes in the index provide a guide to inflation from the point of view of the product's producer/manufacturer and, in contrast to the consumer price index (CPI), excludes VAT and other deductible taxed associated with turnover.

The PPI measures prices at the producer level before they are passed along to consumers. Since the producer price index measures prices of consumer goods and capital equipment, a portion of the inflation at the producer level gets passed through to the consumer price index (CPI).

Because the index of producer prices measures price changes at an early stage in the economic process, it can serve as an indicator of future inflation trends. The producer price index and its sub-indexes are often used in business contracts for the adjustment of recurring payments. They also are used to deflate other values of economic statistics like the production index. It should be noted that the PPI excludes construction.

The PPI provides a key measure of inflation alongside the consumer price indexes and GDP deflators. The output price indexes measure change in manufacturer' goods prices produced and often are referred to as factory gate prices. Input prices are not limited to just those materials used in the final product, but also include what is required by the company in its normal day-to-day operations.

The PPI is considered a precursor of both consumer price inflation and profits. If the prices paid to manufacturers increase, businesses are faced with either charging higher prices or they taking a cut in profits. The ability to pass along price increases depends on the strength and competitiveness of the marketplace.

The bond market rallies when the PPI decreases or posts only small increases, but bond prices fall when the PPI posts larger-than-expected gains. The equity market rallies with the bond market because low inflation promises low interest rates and is good for profits.