Thu Feb 22 04:00:00 CST 2018

Consensus Actual Previous
Month over Month 0.2% 0.3% 0.2%
Year over Year 0.8% 0.9% 0.8%

Consumer prices rose a slightly stronger revised 0.3 percent on the month in January. This put the annual inflation rate at 0.9 percent, matching its upwardly revised final December mark.

The flash HICP, which is seasonally very weak at the start of the year, was also nudged a tick firmer to yield a 1.5 percent decline versus December and a 1.2 percent increase from a year ago.

As previously indicated, the main negative impact on the monthly change in the annual CPI rate came from unprocessed food, where inflation fell from 2.4 percent to 0.4 percent, transport services (1.3 percent after 2.8 percent) and non-regulated energy (2.5 percent after 4.4 percent). Processed food (2.1 percent after 0.8 percent) and regulated energy products (6.4 percent after 3.7 percent) provided the main boost.

The yearly core rate was 0.6 percent, unchanged from its provisional print and 0.2 percentage points above its final December outturn but still indicative of an essentially flat underlying trend.

The consumer price index (CPI) is a measure of the average price level of a fixed basket of goods and services purchased by consumers. Monthly and annual changes in the CPI provide widely used measures of inflation. A provisional estimate, with limited detail, is released about two weeks before the final data are reported.

The consumer price index is the most widely followed indicator of inflation. An investor who understands how inflation influences the markets will benefit over those investors that do not understand the impact. In countries such as the Italy where monetary policy decisions rest on the central bank's inflation target, the rate of inflation directly affects all interest rates charged to business and the consumer. As a member of the European Monetary Union, Italy's interest rates are set by the European Central Bank.

Italy like other EMU countries has both a national CPI and a harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP). Components and weights within the national CPI vary from other countries, reflecting national idiosyncrasies. The core CPI, which excludes fresh food, is usually the preferred indicator of short-term inflation pressures.

Inflation is an increase in the overall prices of goods and services. The relationship between inflation and interest rates is the key to understanding how indicators such as the CPI influence the markets - and your investments. As the rate of inflation changes and as expectations on inflation change, the markets adjust interest rates. The effect ripples across stocks, bonds, commodities, and your portfolio, often in a dramatic fashion.

By tracking inflation, whether high or low, rising or falling, investors can anticipate how different types of investments will perform. Over the long run, the bond market will rally (fall) when increases in the CPI are small (large). The equity market rallies with the bond market because low inflation promises low interest rates and is good for profits.