US: Gallup US ECI

Tue Nov 28 07:30:00 CST 2017

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level 7 3

November ECI climbed to a reading of plus 7 from October's plus 3 the highest level since March 2017 when it was plus 9. And for the week ending November 26 which includes Thanksgiving, the index reading was plus 11, up from plus 4 in the previous week. Economic confidence rose last week among various demographic and political subgroups, including some that have been pessimistic about the economy this year.

Nearly four in 10 Americans (37 percent) described the economy as "good" or "excellent" during the latest week, while 19 percent characterized it as "poor." As a result, the current condition component rose five points to plus 18, tying its highest level since Gallup began tracking economic confidence in 2008.

The economic outlook component crossed over into positive territory for the first time since mid-August. The component rose eight points to register plus 3 over Thanksgiving week, as 49 percent of Americans said the economy was "getting better" and 46 percent said the economy was "getting worse."

Gallup's Economic Confidence Index is a composite of two questions that Gallup asks daily of a nationally representative sample of 500 adults and reports weekly based on approximately 3,500 interviews. The first asks Americans to evaluate current economic conditions and the other measures their perceptions of whether the economy is getting better or getting worse. The two questions have equal weight in the index. The survey is conducted with respondents contacted on landlines and cellphones.

Investors are highly sensitive to consumers' mindset as a potential leading indicator of consumer spending behavior. The Gallup index provides a timely reading of consumer attitudes, facilitating precise evaluations of consumers' mood and the drivers of consumer attitudes. The index gives investors a valuable tool to help predict what the other indexes will report each month, which in turn can help investors anticipate any major stock market reactions.

Econoday reports monthly data. Gallup reports results of the ECI on on a daily, weekly, monthly and quarterly basis.

The Gallup Economic Confidence Index has a possible maximum of plus 100 (reached if all Americans rate current economic conditions as excellent or good, and all Americans say the economy is getting better) and a possible minimum of minus 100 (reached if all rate the current economy as poor, and say the economy is getting worse). The zero midpoint indicates either neutral or mixed attitudes about the economy. Gallup has asked the component questions periodically since 1992, monthly since October 2000, and daily since January 2008. Since 1992, the index has ranged from a high of plus 56 in January 2000, coincident with a period of robust U.S. economic performance and a balanced federal budget, to a low of minus 65 in October 2008, during the global financial crisis.