CA: Monthly GDP

Fri Dec 01 07:30:00 CST 2017

Consensus Actual Previous
Month over Month 0.1% 0.2% -0.1%
Year over Year 3.3% 3.5%

September real gross domestic product (GDP) rose 0.2 percent in September after edging down 0.1 percent in August. Goods-producing (+0.4 percent) and services-producing (+0.1 percent) industries rose as 12 of 20 industrial sectors grew, led by the mining, quarrying and oil and gas extraction sector.

The mining, quarrying and oil and gas extraction sector was up 0.7 percent in September after declining for three consecutive months. For the sixth month in a row, the mining and quarrying (except oil and gas) subsector expanded. The 1.2 percent decline in non-metallic mineral mining in September did not offset August's growth. Other non-metallic mineral mining was down 1.6 percent due to lower activity in the mining of potash and other non-metallic minerals. Real estate and rental and leasing rose in September as did professional services. The construction sector including residential rose for the fourth consecutive month. Transportation and warehousing also advanced as six of nine subsectors increased.

Following eight increases in nine months, wholesale trade declined in September with decreases in seven of nine subsectors. The 6.7 percent decline in personal and household goods wholesaling more than offset the increases of the previous two months. Retail trade was down for the third month in a row, falling 0.5 percent in September as 9 of 12 subsectors were down. Manufacturing was essentially unchanged, as growth in non-durable was offset by a decline in durable manufacturing.

Gross domestic product (GDP) is the broadest measure of aggregate economic activity and encompasses every sector of the economy. In contrast to most industrialised countries a monthly estimate is provided derived from the value added by labour and capital in transforming inputs purchased from other producers into that industry's output. Data for the reference month are usually released close to the end of the second month after the reference period.

Instead of producing an advanced quarterly GDP figure and revising it the following two months, Statistics Canada releases monthly estimates of real GDP at Basic Prices. This release breaks down real output by seven goods-producing industries and twelve service-producing industries, and includes special aggregations such as business sector, non-business sector, and industrial production.

The sources of data used for monthly and quarterly estimates often differ and leads to very different estimates for certain items, such as price deflators. As a result, the monthly figures are not perfectly correlated with the quarterly numbers. However, the monthly data do give some idea of where the quarter is headed and especially in an uncertain environment, they are closely watched. While industrial production is closely watched in the U.S., it is not in Canada especially since the economy has become increasingly dominated by services. However, the goods sector is more vulnerable to wide swings in output compared to services, and exports remain dominated by industrial output.