DE: ZEW Survey

Tue Dec 12 04:00:00 CST 2017

Consensus Actual Previous
Bus. Expectations 18.0 17.4 18.7
Current Conditions 88.7 89.3 88.8

ZEW's December survey found no significant change in analysts' assessment of the German economy.

The current conditions index rose a further 0.5 points to 89.3, its fourth increase in the last five months and its highest reading since July 2011. By contrast, expectations slipped but only by 0.7 points to 17.4. This was their first drop since August but small enough to leave the gauge comfortably towards the upper end of the 10.4-20.6 range recorded over 2017 as a whole.

In sum, the survey suggests that analysts remain very upbeat about the economy this quarter and see further solid progress at the start of next year.

The Mannheim-based Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW), asks German financial experts every month for their opinions on current economic conditions and the economic outlook for Germany (as well as other major industrial economies). The responses are synthesised into two simple indices that provide a snapshot of how the economy is seen to be performing.

The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment is calculated from the results of the ZEW Financial Market Survey. The ZEW is followed closely as a precursor and predictor of the Ifo Sentiment Survey and as such is followed closely by market participants. The data are available the second week of the month for the preceding month. The survey provides a measure of analysts' view of current economic conditions as well as a gauge of expectations about the coming six months. The latter measure tends to have the larger market impact and reflects the difference between the share of analysts that are optimistic and the share of analysts that are pessimistic. About 350 financial experts take part in the survey.