CH: Employment

Mon Nov 27 02:15:00 CST 2017

Actual Previous Revised
Level change (000) Q/Q 15,000 4,000 5,000
Level change (000) Y/Y 38,000 20,000

Employment grew a seasonally adjusted 15,000 over the third quarter, three times the marginally firmer revised pace of the previous period. Compared with a year ago, the number of people in work was up an unadjusted 38,000, also a significant improvement on the 20,000 increase recorded in April-June.

The quarterly gain was led by the service sector where headcount was 0.5 percent higher, its best performance since the end of 2016. However, goods producing payrolls were just 0.1 percent firmer after a 0.2 percent rise in the second quarter.

Today's data hold out hope of a rather better third quarter for Swiss GDP (data due Thursday) but with household consumption likely little more than flat, domestic demand is still likely to have grown only slowly. Domestically generated price pressures remain soft and any near-term increase in CPI inflation will probably mainly reflect just the effects of a weaker CHF. Accordingly, SNB policy should continue very accommodative over the foreseeable future.

The quarterly employment barometer is a survey of 18,000 businesses and service sectors encompassing approximately 65,000 establishments. It collects data on job vacancies, recruitment difficulties and the development of employment forecasts. The main focus is on the quarterly and annual changes in overall employment.

The employment data give a comprehensive report on how many people have jobs. These numbers are the best way to gauge the current state as well as the future direction of the economy. Employment data are categorized by sectors. This sector data can go a long way in helping investors determine in which economic sectors they intend to invest. By tracking the jobs data, investors can sense the degree of tightness in the job market. If employment is tight it is a good bet that interest rates will rise and bond and stock prices will fall. In contrast, when job growth is slow or negative, then interest rates are likely to decline - boosting up bond and stock prices in the process.