GB: Halifax HPI

Tue Nov 07 02:30:00 CST 2017

Consensus Actual Previous
M/M % change 0.2% 0.3% 0.8%
Yr/Yr % change- 3 mo moving av 4.5% 4.5% 4.0%

The Halifax's October survey found UK house prices rising a further 0.3 percent on the month. The increase, which was much as expected, followed an unrevised 0.8 percent gain in September and was the smallest since June.

However, over the three months to October, the HPI was up 2.3 percent, its strongest showing since the start of 2017. Yearly growth was 4.5 percent, a 0.5 percentage point gain on the September quarter rate, the third increase in a row and the highest mark since the three months ended February.

Today's report is in line with the Nationwide survey released last week which showed prices advancing a monthly 0.2 percent. Both lenders continue to stress the importance of very tight supply conditions as a factor underpinning prices but near-record low borrowing costs and a very robust labour market are also helping to support demand. Still, the Halifax's Housing Market Confidence Tracker found a record equalling decline in sentiment last month which, with the BoE having only just tightened, warns that prices could be under fresh downside pressure soon.

The Halifax House Price Index (HPI) is the UK's longest running monthly house price measure with data covering the whole country going back to January 1983. The index is based on the largest monthly sample of mortgage data, typically covering around 15,000 house purchases per month, and covers the whole calendar month. In March 2016 Markit announced that it would be acquiring the Halifax HPI from Lloyds Banking Group. Halifax continues to publish the index on behalf of Markit and both the name and methodology remain unchanged.

Home values affect much in the economy - especially the housing and consumer sectors. Periods of rising home values encourage new construction while periods of soft home prices can damp housing starts. Changes in home values play key roles in consumer spending and in consumer financial health. During the first half of this decade sharply rising home prices boosted how much home equity households held. In turn, this increased consumers' ability to spend, based on wealth effects and from being able to draw upon expanding home equity lines of credit.