Tue Nov 14 01:00:00 CST 2017

Consensus Actual Previous
Month over Month 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Year over Year 1.6% 1.6% 1.6%

Consumer prices were unrevised in the final data for October. An unchanged reading on the month saw the annual inflation rate dip a couple of ticks to 1.6 percent, its first decline and matching its lowest print since May.

The flash HICP was similarly unrevised and so still shows a 0.1 percent decrease on the month and a 1.5 percent yearly rate, down 0.3 percentage points from its final September mark.

Significantly, core inflation was notably soft. Hence, excluding household energy the yearly rate dipped from 1.7 percent to 1.6 percent while without food and energy it shed fully 0.3 percentage points to just 1.2 percent. The weakness here should prove only temporary but is all the more surprising coming in the midst of what appears to be a surprisingly robust economic recovery (see today's GDP calendar entry).

The lack of any revision to the headline data rules out any implications for the final Eurozone HICP report due later today. Even so, the ECB will be less than pleased about the decline in the underlying German rate. Achieving its near-2 percent inflation target still looks some way away.

The consumer price index (CPI) is a measure of the average price level of a fixed basket of goods and services purchased by consumers. Monthly and annual changes in the CPI provide widely used measures of inflation. A provisional estimate, with limited detail, is released about two weeks before the final data are reported.

The consumer price index is the most widely followed indicator of inflation. An investor who understands how inflation influences the markets will benefit over those investors that do not understand the impact. In countries such as Germany where monetary policy decisions rest on the central bank's inflation target, the rate of inflation directly affects all interest rates charged to business and the consumer. As a member of the European Monetary Union, Germany's interest rates are set by the European Central Bank.

Germany like other EMU countries has both a national CPI and a harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP). The HICP is calculated to give a comparable inflation measure for the EMU. Components and weights within the national CPI vary from other countries, reflecting national idiosyncrasies. The preliminary release is based on key state numbers which are released prior to the national estimate. The states include North Rhine-Westphalia, Baden-Württemberg, Saxony, Hesse, Bavaria and Brandenburg. The release date is not announced in advance but the preliminary estimate of the CPI follows in the same day after the last of state releases. The data are revised about two weeks after preliminary release.

Inflation is an increase in the overall prices of goods and services. The relationship between inflation and interest rates is the key to understanding how indicators such as the CPI influence the markets - and your investments. As the rate of inflation changes and as expectations on inflation change, the markets adjust interest rates. The effect ripples across stocks, bonds, commodities, and your portfolio, often in a dramatic fashion.

By tracking inflation, whether high or low, rising or falling, investors can anticipate how different types of investments will perform. Over the long run, the bond market will rally (fall) when increases in the CPI are small (large). The equity market rallies with the bond market because low inflation promises low interest rates and is good for profits.