US: Durable Goods Orders

Wed Oct 25 07:30:00 CDT 2017

Consensus Consensus Range Actual Previous Revised
New Orders - M/M change 1.0% -0.3% to 2.3% 2.2% 1.7% 2.0%
Ex-transportation - M/M 0.5% 0.1% to 1.0% 0.7% 0.2% 0.7%
Core capital goods - M/M change 0.5% 0.0% to 0.6% 1.3% 0.9% 1.3%
New Orders - Yr/Yr Change 8.3% 5.1% 5.5%
Ex-transportation - Yr/Yr 7.5% 6.1% 6.8%
Core capital goods - Yr/Yr 7.8% 3.6% 4.1%

Business investment is picking up sharply based on capital goods orders which highlight a very favorable durable goods report. Durable orders jumped 2.2 percent in September which is right at Econoday's high estimate. A second straight strong month for commercial aircraft, up 64 percent following a 52 percent gain in August, skewed the headline higher but when excluding transportation equipment, orders still managed a strong 0.7 percent gain.

But its core capital goods orders (nondefense ex-aircraft) that show the most important strength, up 1.3 percent with the two prior months also at 1.3 percent. Shipments for this series, which are direct inputs into the business investment component of the GDP report, are building momentum with monthly gains of 0.7 percent in September following 1.2 and 1.0 percent gains in August and July.

One soft spot is vehicle orders which rose only fractionally. Hurricanes effects could not be isolated in September's data and seasonal adjustment procedures were unchanged. Note that upward revisions to August data were first posted in the factory orders report.

Unfilled orders have been flat but rose 0.2 percent which are another positive of September's report. And a rise in inventories will be another plus for GDP, up 0.6 percent and pointing to a monthly build for total factory inventories.

Year-on-year rates are really telling the story, now hitting highs last seen before the oil price collapse of 2014. Total orders are up a yearly 8.3 percent with ex-transportation up 7.5 percent and core capital goods up 7.8 percent.

With only one exception remaining, and that is manufacturing production in the Federal Reserve's industrial production report, factory data are accelerating going into year end. Watch for the Kansas City manufacturing report on tomorrow's calendar.

Market Consensus Before Announcement
Durable goods growth has been steady and moderate with one special highlight and that's improvement for capital goods. Vehicles were another a highlight of the August report with replacement demand a possible key plus for September. Econoday's consensus for durable goods orders is a 1.0 percent gain on top of August's 2.0 percent jump. Ex-transportation orders are seen up 0.5 percent with core capital goods orders also up 0.5 percent.

Durable goods orders reflect the new orders placed with domestic manufacturers for immediate and future delivery of factory hard goods. The first release, the advance, provides an early estimate of durable goods orders. About two weeks later, more complete and revised data are available in the factory orders report. The data for the previous month are usually revised a second time upon the release of the new month's data.

Durable goods orders are available nationally by both industry and market categories. A new order is accompanied by a legally binding agreement to purchase for immediate or future delivery. Advance durable goods orders no longer include data on semiconductors since semiconductor manufacturers stopped releasing this information to the Census Bureau.

The advance durable goods report also contains information on shipments, unfilled orders and inventories. Shipments represent deliveries made, valued at net selling price after discounts and allowances, excluding freight charges and excise taxes. Unfilled orders are those received but not yet delivered.

In 2001, the Census Bureau shifted from the standard industrial classification (SIC) system to the North American Industrial Classification System (NAICS). This caused some realignment of major industry classifications. Given the significant revisions incurred, the historical data now begin in 1992.

Investors want to keep their finger on the pulse of the economy because it usually dictates how various types of investments will perform. Rising equity prices thrive on growing corporate profits - which in turn stem from healthy economic growth. Healthy economic growth is not necessarily a negative for the bond market, but bond investors are highly sensitive to inflationary pressures. When the economy is growing too quickly and cannot meet demand, it can pave the road for inflation. By tracking economic data such durable goods orders, investors will know what the economic backdrop is for these markets and their portfolios.

Orders for durable goods show how busy factories will be in the months to come, as manufacturers work to fill those orders. The data not only provide insight to demand for items such as refrigerators and cars, but also business investment such as industrial machinery, electrical machinery and computers. If companies commit to spending more on equipment and other capital, they are obviously experiencing sustainable growth in their business. Increased expenditures on investment goods set the stage for greater productive capacity in the country and reduce the prospects for inflation.

Durable goods orders tell investors what to expect from the manufacturing sector, a major component of the economy, and therefore a major influence on their investments.

Durable goods orders are a leading indicator of industrial production and capital spending.

The bond market will rally (fall) when durable goods orders are weak (strong). A moderately healthy report for new orders bodes well for corporate profits and the stock market, however. Durable goods orders are one of the most volatile economic indicators reported in the month and this series can be revised by significant amounts from one month to the next. More than any other indicator, it is imperative to follow either three-month moving averages of the monthly levels or year-over-year percent changes. These adjustments smooth out the monthly variability and provide a clearer picture of the trend in the manufacturing sector.

Whenever economic indicators are particularly volatile, it becomes customary to exclude the more variable components from the total. For instance, market players exclude defense orders and transportation orders from durable goods because these fluctuate more than the overall total. Incidentally, aircraft orders are the guilty culprit, which are included in both of these categories. Airplanes are ordered in quantity, not one at a time. Analysts exclude the categories containing aircraft orders because they obscure the underlying trend, not because the aircraft industry is unimportant.

Economists closely watch nondefense capital goods orders as a leading indicator of capital spending. Typically, traders follow the special series for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft because it shows the underlying trend for equipment investment after discounting sharp swings from aircraft orders.

Durable goods orders are measured in nominal dollars. Economic performance depends on real, rather than nominal growth rates. One can compare the trend growth rate in durable goods orders with that of the PPI for finished goods to assess the growth rate in real orders.