GB: CBI Industrial Trends Survey

Fri Sep 22 05:00:00 CDT 2017

Consensus Actual Previous
Level 13 7 13.0

The CBI's September Trends Survey was moderately upbeat despite some signs of slower than expected orders growth.

The orders book (7 percent) was well down on August (13 percent) but still comfortably above its long-run average (minus 14 percent). Within this, exports (10 percent after 11 percent) held up rather better. Past output (17 percent after 30 percent) also apparently cooled but expectations (28 percent after 30 percent) remained elevated. Expected prices (18 percent after 19 percent) were little changed and so still below the peak level seen earlier in the year.

The goods producing sector had a poor second quarter with overall output falling 0.3 percent versus January-March and the key manufacturing category suffering a 0.6 percent decline. This will have been one of the factors preventing the BoE MPC's hawks from succeeding in their call for an immediate 25 basis point hike in Bank Rate. The CBI's latest findings suggest a much better third quarter which should boost the likelihood of a near-term monetary tightening. That said, the CBI were also overly optimistic about April-June.

The Confederation of British Industry (CBI) produces a monthly survey (and a more detailed quarterly report) analysing the performance of UK manufacturing industry. This is the UK's longest running qualitative business tendency survey. Questions relate to domestic and export orders, stocks, price and output expectations with the main market focus being the domestic orders balance. The survey is seen as a loose leading indicator of the official industrial production data.

Started in 1958, this is the UK's longest-running private sector qualitative business tendency survey. The survey is used by policy makers along with those in the business community, academics and top analysts in financial markets. One of its key strengths is that it is released within ten days and prior to official statistics and includes data not covered by official sources. It is never revised. The data are also used by the European Commission's harmonized business survey of EU countries.

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