Thu Sep 28 07:00:00 CDT 2017

Consensus Actual Previous
Month over Month 0.2% 0.1% 0.1%
Year over Year 1.8% 1.8% 1.8%

Provisional consumer prices were just slightly weaker than expected in September. However, a 0.1 percent monthly increase was still enough to hold the annual inflation rate unchanged at 1.8 percent, matching both the market consensus and its highest reading since April.

The flash HICP was flat at its August level, in turn leaving its yearly rate steady at also 1.8 percent.

Not so promisingly, the stability of the annual CPI reading masked positive effects from both food and energy, the rate for the former up from 3.0 percent to 3.6 percent and for the latter from 2.3 percent to 2.7 percent. Overall goods inflation climbed 0.2 percentage points to 2.2 percent but services were only flat at 1.6 percent and rent, excluding utilities stable at 1.7 percent.

Today's German report increases the chances that tomorrow's full Eurozone release could show the region's core inflation edging a tick softer. This would probably not be enough to dissuade the ECB from a monetary recalibration next month but it would bolster the likelihood of any QE tapering being only mild.

The consumer price index (CPI) is a measure of the average price level of a fixed basket of goods and services purchased by consumers. Monthly and annual changes in the CPI provide widely used measures of inflation. A provisional estimate, with limited detail, is released about two weeks before the final data are reported.

The consumer price index is the most widely followed indicator of inflation. An investor who understands how inflation influences the markets will benefit over those investors that do not understand the impact. In countries such as Germany where monetary policy decisions rest on the central bank's inflation target, the rate of inflation directly affects all interest rates charged to business and the consumer. As a member of the European Monetary Union, Germany's interest rates are set by the European Central Bank.

Germany like other EMU countries has both a national CPI and a harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP). The HICP is calculated to give a comparable inflation measure for the EMU. Components and weights within the national CPI vary from other countries, reflecting national idiosyncrasies. The preliminary release is based on key state numbers which are released prior to the national estimate. The states include North Rhine-Westphalia, Baden-Württemberg, Saxony, Hesse, Bavaria and Brandenburg. The release date is not announced in advance but the preliminary estimate of the CPI follows in the same day after the last of state releases. The data are revised about two weeks after preliminary release.

Inflation is an increase in the overall prices of goods and services. The relationship between inflation and interest rates is the key to understanding how indicators such as the CPI influence the markets - and your investments. As the rate of inflation changes and as expectations on inflation change, the markets adjust interest rates. The effect ripples across stocks, bonds, commodities, and your portfolio, often in a dramatic fashion.

By tracking inflation, whether high or low, rising or falling, investors can anticipate how different types of investments will perform. Over the long run, the bond market will rally (fall) when increases in the CPI are small (large). The equity market rallies with the bond market because low inflation promises low interest rates and is good for profits.