CH: UBS Consumption Index

Wed Aug 30 01:00:00 CDT 2017

Actual Previous Revised
Level 1.38 1.38 1.30

The UBS consumption indicator rose 0.08 points from a weaker revised June reading to 1.38 in July. This was its third consecutive increase and its strongest mark since last December but still warns that household spending was probably expanding at only a relatively subdued rate and slightly below its long-run average.

A 4.6 percent annual decline in new car registrations to 24,885, their lowest level since 2009, weighed heavily but was offset by a 9.4 percent jump in overnight hotel stays by Swiss nationals to a new monthly high. More generally, sluggish employment growth continues to have a dampening effect.

Today's results suggest that real household spending is rising at around a 1.4 percent yearly rate, in line with its first quarter pace.

The UBS Consumption Indicator signals private consumption trends in Switzerland with a lead time of one to three months on the official figures. The index is derived from six consumer-related parameters: new car registrations, business activity in the retail sector, the number of domestic overnight hotel stays by Swiss residents, the consumer sentiment index, employment figures and credit card transactions made via UBS at points of sale in Switzerland. With the exception of the consumer sentiment index and employment figures, all of this data is available monthly.

Consumer spending accounts for a large portion of the economy, so if you know what consumers are up to, you will have a pretty good idea on where the economy is headed. Needless to say, that is a big advantage for investors. The UBS consumption indicator is calculated using five specific indicators of spending and expressed in the form of an index. These indicators are: new car sales, business trends in retail, overnight hotel stays by Swiss nationals in Switzerland, the consumer sentiment index and credit card transactions. Because the index value is always positive, markets compare the current index value to the short and long-term average values in order to gauge Swiss economic health. In the long term the average has been approximately 1.5, but may change with time. The pattern in consumer spending is often the foremost influence on stock and bond markets. For stocks, strong economic growth translates to healthy corporate profits and higher stock prices. For bonds, the focus is whether economic growth goes overboard and leads to inflation. Ideally, the economy walks that fine line between strong growth and excessive (inflationary) growth.