CH: Adjusted real retail sales

November 1, 2016 03:15 CDT

Consensus Actual Previous Revised
Y/Y % change -2.2% -2.3% -3.0% -2.8%

September retail sales secured their first monthly rise since December 2015. A 0.2 percent increase followed a smaller revised 0.1 percent fall in August to leave volumes 2.3 percent below their level a year ago, a slight improvement on the mid-quarter's 2.8 percent drop.

However, the overall monthly gain was driven by increased demand for food, beverages and tobacco which advanced 0.4 percent. More significantly, excluding auto fuel, non-food purchases fell a further 0.6 percent after a 0.1 percent decline last time. This was their eighth consecutive contraction.

The September results mean that third quarter retail sales were down 0.6 percent versus the second quarter when they dropped 0.8 percent from January-March. Spending on services has been more buoyant but today's sales data do not bode well for third quarter real GDP growth.

Retail sales measure the total receipts at stores that sell durable and nondurable goods. The survey comprises around 4,000 companies with the small-sized firms asked to provide monthly turnover data on a quarterly basis. Statistics are provided in both nominal and volume measures; the latter is the more important for financial markets. The headline figure is the annual growth in sales volumes adjusted for differences in trading days. Seasonally adjusted monthly changes are also provided. Details are limited in the first estimate but a more complete picture is provided with the following month's release.

Consumer spending accounts for a large portion of the economy, so if you know what consumers are up to, you will have a pretty good idea on where the economy is headed. Needless to say, that is a big advantage for investors. The pattern in consumer spending is often the foremost influence on stock and bond markets. For stocks, strong economic growth translates to healthy corporate profits and higher stock prices. For bonds, the focus is whether economic growth goes overboard and leads to inflation. Ideally, the economy walks that fine line between strong growth and excessive (inflationary) growth. Retail sales not only give you a sense of the big picture, but also the trends among different types of retailers. Perhaps auto sales are especially strong or apparel sales are showing exceptional weakness. These trends from the retail sales data can help you spot specific investment opportunities, without having to wait for a company's quarterly or annual report.