AU: Labour Force Survey

August 17, 2016 08:30 CDT

Consensus Actual Previous
Unemployment 5.8% 5.7% 5.8%
Employment 13,000 26,200 7,900
Participation Rate 64.9% 64.9% 64.9%

The seasonally adjusted number of persons employed increased by a much larger than expected 26,200 in July 2016. The unemployment rate edged 0.1 percentage point lower to 5.7 percent -- it had been expected to remain unchanged at 5.8 percent.. The labour force participation rate remained unchanged at 64.9 percent as anticipated.

The gain in employment was all part time. Part time employment increased 71,600 while full time employment dropped 45,400. The number of unemployed was down 5,500 to 725,500. The number of unemployed persons looking for full-time work declined by 13,300 to 482,400 and the number of unemployed persons only looking for part-time work increased 7,800 to 243,100.

The Labour Force Survey is a key economic indicator giving an overall picture of employment and unemployment. Employment counts the number of paid employees working part-time or full-time in the nation's business and government establishments. The unemployment rate measures the number of unemployed as a percentage of the labour force.

This report is used as an indicator of the health of the domestic economy. Employment trends highlight the strength in job creation and the implications for future sectoral activity. The unemployment rate is used as an indicator of tightness in labor markets and can foreshadow a future increase in wages. Labor force data provide investors with the earliest signs of industry performance. While other data are produced with a month or two delay, these data are available only a week to 10 days after the end of the latest month. Reactions can be dramatic - especially when the result is unanticipated.

The information in the report is invaluable for investors. By looking at employment trends in the various sectors, investors can take more strategic control of their portfolio. If employment in certain industries is growing, there could be investment opportunities in the firms within that industry.

The bond market will rally (fall) when the employment situation shows weakness (strength). The equity market often rallies with the bond market on weak data because low interest rates are good for stocks. But sometimes the two markets move in opposite directions. After all, a healthy labor market should be favorable for the stock market because it supports economic growth and corporate profits. At the same time, bond traders are more concerned about the potential for inflationary pressures.

The unemployment rate rises during cyclical downturns and falls during periods of rapid economic growth. A rising unemployment rate is associated with a weak or contracting economy and declining interest rates. Conversely, a decreasing unemployment rate is associated with an expanding economy and potentially rising interest rates. The fear is that wages will accelerate if the unemployment rate becomes too low and workers are hard to find.