|Total Amount||$13 B||$11 B|
Inflation fears may be awakening, judging from the strong results of today's 10-year TIPS auction, where strong investor demand appeared, with non-dealers taking down a very large 76 percent share of the $13 billion offering. Coverage, at 2.39, was the best for the 10-year TIPS this year. The high yield awarded approached 0 at a mere 0.045 percent, down 23 basis points from the previous auction in May. With the 10-year benchmark Treasury currently trading at a yield of 1.58 percent, it means that market participants on balance are willing to give up a yield that is 1.535 percent higher to get the inflation protection offered by the inflation-adjusted principal of the TIPS. This so-called break-even inflation rate, which presumably reflects the market's annual inflation rate expectations for the next 10 years and as such is closely monitored by the Fed, is now virtually unchanged from the level at the beginning of the year, though it has fluctuated meanwhile between the low of 1.18 percent set in March and the April high of 1.72 percent.
The Treasury sells inflation-indexed securities, also known as TIPS, at regularly scheduled auctions. Competitive bids at these single-price auctions determine the interest rate paid on each issue, which remains fixed. Note the interest rate cannot be negative with the Treasury setting a minimum of 0.125 percent. A group of securities dealers, known as primary dealers, are authorized and obligated to submit competitive tenders at Treasury auctions. Dealers can hold the bills, resell the bills to their clients or trade them with other securities firms. Typically, the New York Fed approves about 20 securities firms to be primary dealers but that number dropped sharply during the 2008 financial crisis as some were merged into other firms or went bankrupt. The Fed has been rebuilding that number regularly and the latest list can be found here. The Treasury announces the amount, date and time of the 10-year TIPS auction six times a year: January, March, May, July, September and November. The 10-year TIPS are usually announced at the beginning of January and July. The March, May, September and November announcement calls for a reopening of the previously issued security. In each of the aforementioned months, 10-year TIPS are auctioned in the second week of the month. These TIPS are issued on the last day of the month; if it falls on a weekend or holiday, then they are issued (settled) on the next business day.
Individual investors can participate in Treasury auctions either through a securities dealer (brokerage firm) or via the Treasury Direct program, which saves on brokerage commissions. But brokers commissions are often nominal (especially with discount brokers), and using a broker does eliminate a lot of paper work and other administrative hassles. Brokers facilitate the purchases and sales of Treasuries in the secondary market, which is handy for buying Treasuries at times other than scheduled auctions or for maturities other than those offered by standard new issues.
Interest rates on Treasury securities are determined in the market; the Federal Reserve does not set them. However, bond investors are sensitive to Federal Reserve policy and thus market rates will mirror policy expectations. Usually, bond market players are forward-looking and this means that interest rates on Treasury securities will move in the direction of Fed policy with a lead. As a result, one is more likely to see rising interest rates on Treasury yields during an expansion (and falling yields during economic slowdowns) in advance of policy changes by the Federal Reserve.
TIPS, inflation-indexed securities, are designed to shield investors from inflation-risk. The principal is adjusted for inflation. Instead of getting back your initial investment of $1,000, for instance, you would get $1,000 plus an additional amount tied to the inflation rate. Since there is no inflation premium on the interest rate, interest payments (and yields attached to the TIPS) are lower than for regular Treasury securities. Economists and policymakers consider the differential between yields on 10-year TIPS and regular 10-year notes to be a proxy for investors' estimate of inflation expectations.
Primer on Treasuries
Treasury securities, Treasuries, U.S. government bonds, T-bonds, T-notes, and T-bills all refer to the same type of security: debt obligations of the United States. Maturity refers to the length of the loan to the government. TIPS, which were first offered in 1998, have had maturities of 5, 10, 20 or 30 years (the last 30-year offering was in 2001). Treasury notes have maturities from 2 to 10 years (2-, 3-, 5-, 7- and 10-year notes are most common). Since 2008, the Treasury ruled that all securities it issues now have minimum denominations of $100 and must be purchased in increments of $100.
How TIPS work
The principal amount of the security is adjusted for inflation and is paid at maturity. Securities are redeemed at the greater of their inflation-adjusted principal or par amount at original issue. Interest payments, which are taxable like other Treasuries, are issued six times a year and are based on the inflation-adjusted principal at the time of payment. The index for measuring the rate of inflation is the non-seasonally adjusted U.S. City Average All Items Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers published each month by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. If this index is materially changed, the Treasury will substitute an alternative index.
You pay $1,000 for a TIPS note and receive interest payments every six months based on the inflation-adjusted principal at the time of payment. If the coupon is 3% and the rate of inflation, for instance, stays at 3%, you get $30 every six months for a total of $60 per year. When the note matures in 10 years, you get back the greater of the inflation-adjusted principal or the $1,000 par amount at original issue.
Treasuries offer a measure of security unmatched by other investments - the U.S. government guarantees the initial investment (the principal) and the interest payments. With regular Treasury securities, inflation may erode the value of both the principal and interest payments. But TIPS offer an additional level of security, protecting the investor from an onset of inflation. When TIPS are resold in the secondary market, their price could be substantially more or less than the face value. Price fluctuations in the secondary market are based on the economic environment, inflation expectations, Federal Reserve policy, and simple forces of supply and demand. Opportunity risk refers to what could have been earned had the money been invested elsewhere.
Important note: Accrued interest relating to inflation gain is not paid out until maturity, however, the individual is required to pay federal income taxes on this amount. That's why many financial advisors suggest that these securities be purchased for tax-deferred retirement accounts.
Six times a year