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Stay up to date with the latest probabilities of the OPEC meeting expected outcomes with the CME OPEC Watch Tool.
The CME OPEC Watch Tool calculates the probability of certain potential outcomes from the next Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) meeting. Using WTI Crude Oil option market price data the tool calculates the implied probabilities of OPEC event outcomes. The three outcomes are generalized as ‘Increase Output’, ‘Maintain Output Cuts, and ‘Further Output Cuts’. The tool then assigns a probability to each of those outcomes calculated using the nearest weekly and monthly option expirations.
1. When first launched, the CME OPEC Watch Tool will display a bar chart of the calculated probabilities from current market data for the upcoming OPEC meeting.
2. Clicking on a bar within the chart displays a recent history of the probability, including the futures price mapped against it.
3. Along the left, there is a ‘History’ tab. After selecting this tab, users can select from each of the 6 previous OPEC meeting dates, the tool will display the historical calculated outcome probabilities for that respective meeting.
4. Clicking the PDF icon will show two options for printing the current page information: portrait or landscape. The recommended print format for this report is landscape.
The tab labeled Data on the left side of the tool shows these probabilities are based on implied volatilities in the WTI Crude Oil option market price data calculated from the closest WTI option expiration month that expires after the OPEC meeting.
Clicking the PDF icon will show two options for printing the current page information: portrait or landscape. The recommended print format for this report is landscape.
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Check out the CME OPEC Watch Tool and see the probability of change from the next OPEC meeting.