The story of biofuel production and demand in the United States in the 21st century is one of growth. The first decade of the century was characterized by rapid expansion in ethanol derived from corn, with use of corn for alcohol fuel propelled by aggressive national policy in the form of the Renewable Fuel Standard. Since 2010, use of corn for alcohol fuel has plateaued or decreased, while biomass-based diesel (BBD) fuels biodiesel and renewable diesel have increased dramatically in prevalence under supportive national policy.

The Renewable Fuel Standard (2)

The RFS is considered the primary driver of biofuel production in the United States. Created under the Energy Policy Act of 2005, the RFS was amended to the RFS2 in 2007 and established the first renewable replacement mandates for diesel. Under the RFS2, companies that refine, import or blend fossil fuels are required to meet quotas, or Renewable Volume Obligations (RVOs). A producer's RVO can be met by either blending renewable fuels into the fuel supply or by purchasing and retiring Renewable Identification Numbers (RINs). 

Tradable credits are generated by the production of biofuel and are the currency of the RFS. The RVO system has created a market for RINs, which vary in value by biofuel category: renewable (sometimes referred to as conventional) biofuel, biomass-based diesel (BBD, above), cellulosic biofuel and other advanced biofuel. Compliance is assessed at the end of each year. The majority of RFS obligation has historically been fulfilled by ethanol, which falls under the category of renewable/conventional biofuel. Biodiesel and renewable diesel are the two primary types of biofuel that satisfy the RFS’s BBD mandate. 

Proposed changes to the RFS for 2026 and 2027, which focuses on U.S. renewable fuel production, aims to strengthen the agricultural and energy sectors by promoting domestic fuels and feedstocks. Decisions made under the Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA’s) program directly impact not only the profitability of biofuel production (such as ethanol, renewable diesel and biodiesel) but also broader economic factors such as crop demand and retail fuel prices. Countering a common criticism, the U.S. Department of Energy maintains that biofuels incentivized by the RFS demonstrate positive environmental impact compared to petroleum fuels, as well as “positive energy balance,” meaning that the fuel itself provides more energy than is required to produce it. Analyses that consider indirect land use, however, offer varying conclusions. 

Ethanol


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This is the fifth article of a series designed to help you understand and maximize trading opportunities in the Soybean Oilshare market.


Percent of total disappearance of corn used for fuel in the United States (million bushels)

Biodiesel and Renewable Diesel

Biodiesel and renewable diesel are the two chief varieties of biofuel for which soybean oil is the primary input in the United States. Palm oil, corn oil, yellow grease, canola, tallow, used cooking oil, algal oil and others are also constituent feedstocks in the United States, with more prevalent use internationally. The share of domestic disappearance of soybean oil for BBD use has increased from negligible at the turn of the 21st century to almost 49% in the crop year beginning October 2024. In that time, domestic disappearance of soybean oil increased 63%.

Domestic disappearance of soybean oil for biofuel (million pounds)

Used cooking oil (UCO) has emerged as a notable feedstock for renewable diesel and biodiesel production. This is primarily due to its attractiveness as a low-cost waste product with a low carbon intensity. Programs like California's Low Carbon Fuel Standard have played a crucial role in stimulating both the capacity for and demand for UCO as a fuel source. Increased environmental awareness and the adoption of circular economy practices are fostering the collection and reuse of UCO.

Biodiesel is a biofuel created through a process called transesterification, yielding a fatty acid methyl ester (FAME, to which biodiesel is sometimes referred) that can be blended with petroleum diesel up to a 20% blend wall to power unmodified diesel engines. Renewable diesel, conversely, is chemically identical to petroleum diesel, allowing it to be used unblended in unmodified diesel engines. Its chemical resemblance to petroleum diesel also allows for renewable diesel to be transported through preexisting petroleum pipelines. 

The relative usefulness of renewable diesel is reflected by the relative difficulty in its production compared to biodiesel, lending to biodiesel’s historical prevalence in domestic capacity. Thanks to increasing production capacity buoyed by state and national incentive policy, however, renewable diesel production is rapidly accelerating. Operable production capacity of renewable diesel and other biofuels exceeded that of biodiesel in the United States in July 2022 and exceeded biodiesel capacity by 140% in July of 2025.

Domestic disappearance of soybean oil for biofuel (million pounds)

Renewable diesel in the United States has historically been produced and consumed in West Coast states; California, Washington and Oregon each offer incentive programs for production in addition to being subject to the national Renewable Fuel Standard. Biodiesel production and use, by contrast, is more prevalent in the upper Midwestern states of Minnesota, Iowa and Illinois.

Ethanol is the dominant form of biofuel in the United States, though its share is diminishing. In the United States, ethanol is primarily derived from corn via distillation, while in other countries ethanol may be primarily derived from sugar, crop residue or wood chips. The U.S. Department of Energy estimates that 98% of commercial gasoline in the United States contains ethanol, with a 10% blend wall (E10) being the most common formulation. California, the nation’s largest motor fuel market, recently gained momentum with Governor Newsom signing Bill AB30 into legislation, allowing the sale of E15 gasoline in the state in October 2025. This change could lower gasoline prices by up to $0.20 per gallon, according to a study conducted by the University of California, Berkeley, and the U.S. Naval Academy. E15, which contains 15% ethanol, has been widely adopted in other states.

The share of corn used for ethanol peaked in 2012 at 40% of total domestic corn disappearance after a sharp rise in the first decade of the millennium, following the then-new RFS mandate and totalling 35% in the current crop year 2025.

Conclusion

The U.S. biofuel sector in the 21st century has been defined by significant growth and a strategic shift in focus, primarily driven by the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS). The initial rapid expansion centered on corn-derived ethanol; however, its growth has since moderated. Concurrently, biomass-based diesel (BBD) fuels – biodiesel and, increasingly, renewable diesel – have surged in prevalence, utilizing diverse feedstocks like soybean oil and waste products such as used cooking oil (UCO). The RFS continues to shape the economic landscape for biofuel producers and the broader agricultural and energy sectors. Proposed changes to the RFS signal a continued commitment to domestic fuel and feedstock production, underscoring the enduring policy influence on the profitability and future direction of the U.S. biofuel market.

As market dynamics evolve, CME Group will continue to provide risk management solutions for our changing world. Learn more about the Soybean complex and suite of biofuel products at www.cmegroup.com/agriculture and www.cmegroup.com/energy.


All examples in this report are hypothetical interpretations of situations and are used for explanation purposes only. The views in this report reflect solely those of the author and not necessarily those of CME Group or its affiliated institutions. This report and the information herein should not be considered investment advice or the results of actual market experience.

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