Implied Volatility Heading Into Summer

By Craig Bewick
MAY 27 2021

As we head into the unofficial start of summer with this weekend’s Memorial Day holiday here in the US, markets were fairly subdued once again.  There were a couple of exceptions though as Corn futures prices rose by nearly 6.5%, Wheat by nearly 4% and Soybeans by over 2%.  In Interest Rates, prices at the longer end of the US Treasury curve fell (yields rose slightly) as the market continues to weigh whether the signs of inflation we’ve seen lately are “transitory”. 

There is a popular phrase in the financial markets that goes “sell in May and go away” as the summer months have historically tended to be quieter.  However, it seems that with today’s news cycle and different domestic and global events that can impact markets, we can see volatility enter the markets at just about any time.  That said, we wanted to see where implied volatility is currently trading relative to the last six months.  As you can see in the chart compiled using QuikStrike data, current 30-day volatility is lower in almost every product we looked at than the average closing level over the past 6 months.  Even Bitcoin implied volatility is near the six month average after the recent spike to about 120%. 

Even though it’s the last trading day before the Memorial Day Holiday, be sure to tune into In FOCUS tomorrow for your chance to answer the Question of the Day and win a Gift Certificate!

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Craig Bewick has spent 25 years in futures and options markets, starting at CBOT and CME working in risk management, regulatory, technology, product management and client development. 

Connect with Craig at activetrader@cmegroup.com

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