Happy New Year and welcome back to all of our In FOCUS readers! As we head into the 2021 trading year, we wanted to take a quick look back at CME Group markets in 2020 (though we realize few want to re-live that year…). In a format that should be familiar to In FOCUS readers, we’ve recapped the price, volatility and skew moves in some of our major products that occurred from 12/31/19 to 12/31/20. To say it was an eventful year in the financial and commodity markets is surely an understatement and the fact that implied volatility increased in every product we showcased here certainly supports that. Some notable highlights include:
And now that we’ve taken a minute to review from where we’ve come, let’s put 2020 behind us and look forward to a great 2021. While the major equity indexes began the day (and year) by hitting new record highs, stocks sold off throughout the day. The market will be watching the Senate runoff races in Georgia closely as a sweep by the democrat candidates would result in democrat controlled White House, Senate and House of Representatives. Perhaps not surprisingly, 30-day implied volatility spiked in both the E-mini Nasdaq-100 and S&P 500 options markets. The volatility curve in the E-mini S&P 500 options would suggest the market is indeed pricing a fair amount of price volatility into the election results based on the relatively high vols in this week’s Wednesday and Friday expirations.
Precious metals futures prices were active today as well as Gold futures prices were up by nearly 3% to 1,946 per ounce and Silver prices were up by close to 4%. Volatility in the options market of both metals increased and the Calls were bid versus the Puts.
So, I think it’s safe to say that we’re hitting the ground running in 2021!