In advance of this week's Federal Open Market Committee meeting on April 29-30, the CME Group will be reporting daily rate change probabilities in the FOMC's federal funds target rate, as indicated by the 30-Day Federal Funds futures contract. The 30-Day Federal Funds futures contract is a key benchmark interest rate barometer that reflects the forward overnight effective rate for excess reserves that are traded among commercial banks in the U.S. federal funds market.

 

Based upon the April 29 market close, the 30-Day Federal Funds futures contract for the May 2008 expiration is currently pricing in an 80 percent probability that the FOMC will decrease the target rate by at least 25 basis points from 2-1/4 percent to 2 percent at tomorrow’s FOMC meeting (versus a 20 percent probability of no rate change).

This notification concludes this Fed Watch period. The next scheduled Fed Watch period will start on Wednesday, June 18, one full week prior to the next scheduled FOMC meeting on June 25.

  

April 23:    18% for No Change versus 82% for -25 bps.

April 24:    18% for No Change versus 82% for -25 bps.

April 25:    22% for No Change versus 78% for -25 bps.

April 28:    22% for No Change versus 78% for -25 bps.

April 29:    20% for No Change versus 80% for -25 bps.

April 30:    FOMC decision on federal funds target rate.