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Speculators: Ensuring Effective Markets

Facts Behind Beef Prices

Facts Behind Food Prices

Facts Behind Oil Prices

Agricultural Fundamentals

Featured Research and Market Studies

Bubbles in Food Prices
John Kemp, Reuters, March 26, 2013

Futures Markets and Speculation: Lessons From the Past for Today
Scott Irwin, October 18, 2012

Post hoc, ergo propter hoc
ISDA Media.Comment, September 11, 2012

Why We Need Speculators
Tim Worstall,The Telegraph, July 2, 2012

Blaming Energy Futures for Energy's Current Costs
Scott Irwin, The Washington Times, May 3, 2012

The Fallacy of Blaming Oil 'Speculators'
Robert J. Samuelson, The Washington Post, May 2, 2012

Research and News

2011
Back to the Futures The Economist, September 17, 2011 Analysis of CFTC Proposed Position Limits on Commodity Index Fund Trading Dr. Clifford V. Rossi, April 25, 2011
2010
Proposed Regulations Regarding Position Limits for Derivatives CFTC, January 2010 CFTC Documents Reveal Internal Debate on Position Limits. Wall Street Journal. May 2010 CME Group Files Public Comment Letter on Energy Position Limits CME Group. April 26, 2010 Summary of CFTC Position Limits Proposal for Exchange Energy Markets: What Does it Mean for Me? CME Group. March 2010 Statement of Thomas LaSala, March 25, 2010 CME Group Managing Director and Global Chief Regulatory Officer, Before CFTC Meeting on Metals Position Limits Energy Position Limits: No Evidence, No Legal Basis Streetwise Professor. March 19, 2010 FIA comments on the CFTC Notice of Proposed Rulemaking entitled "Federal Speculative Position Limits for Referenced Energy Contracts and Associated Regulations." Futures Industry Association. March 18, 2010
2009
Excessive Speculation and Position Limits in Energy Derivatives Markets CME Group. September 16, 2009
2008
Speculative Position Limits and Hedge Fund Exemptions Fred Seamon, associate director, Research and Product Development. CME Group. July 2008.

About Speculation

As volatility in commodities such as wheat, crude oil and corn continues to increase, the role of "speculators" in the commodity markets comes into question. The fact is speculators play a significant role in the marketplace taking on risks others are trying to hedge. CME Group is taking a leading role to educate Congress and others about the fundamental factors impacting the markets and the important role speculators and other participants play in our free markets. We are also addressing the issue of Position Limits which is a related area of discussion with our regulators.

Bookmark this page to stay informed about the latest news and research on these topics.

Speeches and Testimonies

2011

April 13, 2011
House Committee on Agriculture
Testimony of Terry Duffy, Executive Chairman CME Group

April 12, 2011
Senate Committee on Banking, Housing & Urban Affairs
Testimony of Terry Duffy, Executive Chairman CME Group

February 15, 2011
House Financial Services Committee
Testimony of Terry Duffy, Executive Chairman CME Group

February 10, 2011
House Committee on Agriculture
Testimony of Terry Duffy, Executive Chairman CME Group

2010

Dec. 15, 2010
House Committee on Agriculture
Testimony of Terry Duffy, Executive Chairman CME Group

2009

July 28, 2009
Commodity Futures Trading Commission
Testimony of Craig Donohue, CEO CME Group

July 21, 2009
Senate Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations
Testimony of Charles P. Carey, Vice Chairman CME Group

February 3, 2009
United States House of Representatives Committee on Agriculture
Statement of Terry Duffy, Executive Chairman CME Group

2008

June 26, 2008
U.S.-Africa Agribusiness Forum
Speech of Terry Duffy, Executive Chairman CME Group

June 17, 2008
Senate Ag Committee
Testimony of Terry Duffy, Executive Chairman CME Group

June 17, 2008
Senate Ag Committee
Testimony of Terry Duffy, Executive Chairman CME Group

May 15, 2008
House Agriculture Committee
Testimony of Terry Duffy, Executive Chairman CME Group

April 22, 2008
CFTC Agricultural Roundtable
Statement of Charlie Carey, Vice Chairman CME Group

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CME Group is the world's leading and most diverse derivatives marketplace. The company is comprised of five Designated Contract Markets (DCMs). Further information on each exchange's rules and product listings can be found by clicking on the links to CME, CBOT, NYMEX, COMEX and KCBT.

2013
Bubbles in Food Prices John Kemp, Reuters, March 26, 2013
2011
On the Fallacy of Speculation-Driven Commodity Price Spikes Mark J. Roberts, Greed, Green and Grains, October 14, 2011 Why Another Food Commodity Price Spike? Ronald Trostle, USDA Amberwaves, September 2011 Corn Ethanol Scam: A Profligate Biofuel Policy Mark J. Perry, Carpe Diem, August 16, 2011 Report Links Biofuels with Food Prices Caroline Henshaw, WSJ Blog The Source, August 4, 2011 What’s Driving Food Prices in 2011? Farm Foundation Issue Report, July 2011 The Great Corn Con Steven Rattner, The New York Times, June 24, 2011 US ethanol subsidy caused corn price surge: study AFP, June 24, 2011 Helping Food Producers Weather the Storm Thomas Mirow, Financial Times, June 22, 2011 (subscription required) G-20 to Press U.S. to End Aid for Biofuels Industry John W. Miller, Wall Street Journal, June 22, 2011 (subscription required) World Bank in Push for Food Price Hedging Javier Blas, Financial Times, June 21, 2011 (subscription required) A Warming Planet Struggles to Feed Itself Justin Gillis, The New York Times, June 4, 2011 Commodity Markets: Fundamental Factors Affecting Agriculture CME Group, May 11, 2011 Food Prices Rising. Blame Wall Street? Joseph Weber, Wide-Eyed Wonder, May 4, 2011 As Long As The Commodity Sells, Does It Make A Difference Who Buys It? Stu Ellis, The Farmgateblog.com, April 19, 2011 Biofuel Policy is Causing Starvation, Says Nestle Boss The Independent, March 23, 2011 Outlook for Food Prices: High Wall Street Journal, February 17, 2011 (subscription required) Ethanol Pumping up Food Prices USA Today, February 9, 2011 Corn Prices To Soar As Chinese Imports Increase Ninefold Compared To Official Projections Zero Hedge Blog, February 6, 2011
2010
The Economics of Grain Price Volatility Brian D. Wright, Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, January 2010 Rethinking the Global Food Crisis: The Role of Trade Shock Derek Headley, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI Discussion paper 00958), 2010. Public Policies and Rising World Food Prices Once Again . Gary Becker. The Becker-Posner Blog. November 21, 2010 Why are commodity prices rising? Our panel of experts discusses. The Economist . November 12, 2010 Know your onions: Why commodity speculators do more good than harm . The Economist . November 11, 2010 Hedging helps foodmakers through uncertainty. Javier Blass and Greg Farrell. Financial Times/ft.com. August 13, 2010 (subscription required) Reap What You Swap. Betsy Jensen. New York Times. August 11, 2010 Wheat Speculators Slow Bets on Gain After Best Month Since 1973. Whitney McFerron. Bloomberg/Bloomberg.com. August 9, 2010
2009
Spreads and Non-Convergence in CBOT Corn, Soybean, and Wheat Futures: Are Index Funds to Blame? Scott H. Irwin, Philip Garcia, Darrel L. Good, and Eugene L. Kunda. University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. November 2009. Comments on Permanent Senate Subcommittee on Investigations Report on CBOT Wheat Market. Scott H. Irwin, Darrel L. Good, Philip Garcia, and Eugene L. Kunda. Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics. University of Illinois. July 6, 2009. The Economist.. July 9, 2009. (Subscription required) Crop Cutbacks by Farmers Spell Higher Food Prices. Scott Kilman; April 6, 2009, Wall Street Journal. (Subscription required) What's Driving Food Prices? Philip C. Abbott, Christopher Hurt, Wallace E. Tyner; Farm Foundation, Issue Report, March 2009 Update. U.S. News: Grain Costs Down, Groceries Not – Farmers to Cut Back on Planting Amid Market Weakness, Pressuring Consumer Prices. Scott Kilman; March 13, 2009, Wall Street Journal.(Subscription required) Issues Involving the Use of the Futures Markets to Invest in Commodity Indexes. U.S. Government Accountability Office. January 30, 2009.
2008
Soybeans Near $15 On Stockpile Worries. Lauren Etter, Debbie Carlson and Gary Wulf; September 13, 2008, Wall Street Journal (subscription required) What's Driving Food Prices? (executive summary) (full report) Phillip C. Abbott, Christopher Hurt, Wallace E. Tyner: July 2008, Farm Foundation Global Agricultural Supply and Demand: Factors Contributing to the Recent Increase in Food Commodity Prices. Ronald Trostle. A Report from the Economic Research Service of the USDA. July 2008. The Adequacy of Speculation in Agricultural Futures Markets: Too Much of a Good Thing? Dwight R. Sanders, Scott H. Irwin, and Robert P. Merrin. Dept. of Agriculture and Consumer Economics, Univ. of Ill. at Urbana-Champaign. June 2008. Farm Prices' Roundabout Path to Market. Avi Salzman; June 24, 2008. Business Week Navigating the Uncharted Waters of Weather and Supply & Demand Fundamentals: 2008 Corn, Soybean and Wheat Market Prospects Drew Lerner, president, World Weather, Inc. and Steve Freed, vice president of Research, ADM Investor Services. June 12, 2008. [video: archived webinar] The Global Food Crisis: Facts and Opportunities. BV Krishnamurthy. Harvard Business Publishing. May 8, 2008. A New Era in Grains and Oilseeds Joseph Victor, Vice President of Marketing, Allendale, Inc., and Dr. Robert Wisner, Extension Economist, Iowa State University. March 25, 2008. [video: archived webinar]

2012
Futures Markets and Speculation: Lessons From the Past for Today Scott Irwin, October 18, 2012 Post hoc, ergo propter hoc ISDA Media.Comment, September 11, 2012 Why We Need Speculators Tim Worstall,The Telegraph, July 2, 2012
2011
Commodity Price Gains: Speculation vs. Fundamentals The Regional Economist, Brett Fawley and Luciana Juvenal, July 2011 G20 Analysis of Commodity Prices and Volatility G20 Study Group on Commodities, November 2011 Study Sheds New Light on Commodity Investment and Financialisation of Commodity Markets CPI Financial, October 26, 2011 Does Speculation Cause High Food Prices? Kay McDonald, Big Picture Agriculture, October 4, 2011 Beware Whacking Speculators for Commodity Swings Gillian Tett, Financial Times, September 8, 2011 (subscription required) Even the U.N. Hates Ethanol Wall Street Journal, June 14, 2011 (subscription required) Trade Slows as the Mississippi River Flows Duane Stanford, Bloomberg Businessweek, May 25, 2011 Everything from Oil to Silver: Are Speculators Causing Too Much Volatility? Knowledge@Wharton, May 25, 2011 Derivatives Commodity Symposium John D. Hofmeister, The Honorable Susan Phillips, Dr. Craig Pirrong, May 12, 2011 The Relationship Between Commodity Futures Trading and Physical Commodity Prices Dr. Henry G. Jarecki, April 5, 2011 The Speculation Scapegoat Dan Collins, Futures Magazine, May 4, 2011 Are Speculators to Blame for High Food Commodity Prices? No, and This Explains Why. Kay McDonald, Big Picture Agriculture, March 24, 2011 China-the wild card for commodity prices Reuters, February 15, 2011 Index Investment Data. John D. Hill and Jack Cook, CME Group Research and Product Development. February 15, 2011 The Long Look at Commodities Dwight Anderson, Ospraie Management LLC February 10, 2011 Tackling the Challenges in Commodity Markets and on Raw Materials European Commission, February 2, 2011
2010
Index Funds, Financialization and Commodity Futures Markets Irwin, Scott H. and Sanders, Dwight R., October 29, 2010 The Impact of Index and Swap Funds on Commodity Futures Markets: Preliminary Results Irwin, S. H. and D. R. Sanders (2010), OECD Food, Agriculture and Fisheries Working Papers, No. 27 Commodity Bulls Financial Times/ft.com. July 21, 2010. (Subscription required.) Speculation and Fund Activity Dwight Sanders and Scott Irwin. Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, June 2010 The Value of Profitable Speculation-Becker. Gary Becker. The Becker-Posner Blog. May 2, 2010. CFTC data shows speculators don't influence commodity markets Alex Davis. Risk.net. April 13, 2010.(subscription required) Anthony Ward on speculators, commodities futures. Financial Times/ft.com (video). April 9, 2010. (Subscription required)
2009
Barcap say speculators are not to blame! Isabella Kaminska. Financial Times – ftalphaville.ft.com/blog. September 8, 2009. (Subscription required) Fear of CFTC regulations forces changes. Gregory Meyer. New York Bureau. Financial Times. August 25, 2009. (Subscription required) Regulatory action may see commodities traders migrate. Javier Blas. Financial Times. August 5, 2009. (Subscription required) HEARD ON THE STREET – Speculation Witch Hunt Is a Gamble. Liam Denning. Wall Street Journal. August 5, 2009. (Subscription required) Commodities speculation [Lex Column]. Financial Times. August 4, 2009. (Subscription required) The Politics of ‘Speculation’ [Review & Outlook]. Wall Street Journal. July 29, 2009. (Subscription required) Debate Over Speculation In Commodities Investor's Business Daily. Trang Ho. Investor's Business Daily. July 21, 2009. Washington to Speculators: All Bets Are Off. Liam Denning. Wall Street Journal. July 7, 2009. Commodity derivatives regulation. Financial Times. July 7, 2009. (Subscription required) In Defense of Derivatives and How to Regulate Them. Rene M. Stulz. April 7, 2009, The Wall Street Journal. (Subscription required)
2008
An Evaluation of the Influence of Large Reporting Traders on Futures Market Performance – a CME Group Summary, Dave Lehman, Director of Commodity Research and Product Development, CME Group, February 2009 (Video Podcast) An Evaluation of the Influence of Large Reporting Traders on Futures Market Performance - the Ful Report. Informa Economics, February 2008 The Misadventures of Mr. Masters: Act II (a critique of a recent report by Michael Masters on the role of commodity speculation). Dr. Scott Irwin, September 17, 2008, Econbrowser. See You Later, Speculator. Editorial; September 15, 2008, Wall Street Journal (Subscription required) Futures Imperfect. Dwight R. Sanders and Scott H. Irwin; July 20, 2008, New York Times Who's Behind High Prices. Robert J. Samuelson; July 1, 2008, Washington Post Fundamentals, not speculators, are to blame for rising prices. Francisco Blanch; June 25, 2008, Financial Times (Subscription required) Review and Outlook: Political Speculators. June 24, 2008, Wall Street Journal (Subscription required) A Bull Market Sees the Worst in Speculators. Diana B. Henriques; June 13, 2008, New York Times Dubai’s Favorite Senators. June 10, 2008, Wall Street Journal (Subscription required) Craig Donohue on CNBC's The Call. June 6, 2008, CNBC (video) Blamestorming for food, oil prices. Walter Williams; June 1, 2008 , appealdemocrat.com Independent Research by EKA on the role of Institutional Investors in Rising Commodity Prices. Keith Black , CFAIA and Ennis Knupp June 2008