Commodity Information Update

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The Latest Information on the CME Group Commodity Markets

With historic volatility in food staples such as corn, soybeans and wheat, as well as with energy, the role of “speculators” in the commodity markets has come into question. CME Group is taking a leading role to educate Congress and others about the fundamental factors impacting the markets and the important role speculators and other participants all play in our free markets. Check this site regularly to stay informed about our grain and energy markets. We will add links as new information becomes available.

An Evaluation of the Influence of Large Reporting Traders on Futures Market Performance, Dave Lehman, Director of Commodity Research and Product Development, CME Group, February 2009 (Video Podcast)

Fundamental Factors Impacting Other Commodity Prices, updated June 30, 2009 (pdf)

*RECENT ITEMS* [updated November 6, 2009]

More evidence speculators are not to blame for commodity moves. Izabella Kaminska. ftalphaville.com/blog. October 28, 2009.

Among the biggest of oil speculators, US oil funds says it's not the boogie man. Chris Kahn. AP. October 5, 2009.

Rules Could Put Squeeze On Retail Investors In Commodity ETFs. Brian Baskin. Dow Jones Newswires. October 5, 2009.

September 2009 Articles

Speculators and the oil price ---Data drilling. New York Bureau. Financial Times. September 10, 2009.

Barcap say speculators are not to blame! Isabella Kaminska. Financial Times – ftalphaville.ft.com/blog. September 8, 2009.

August 2009 Articles

Fear of CFTC regulations forces changes. Gregory Meyer. New York Bureau. Financial Times. August 25, 2009.

New CFTC report may raise transparency, questions. Alden Bentley. Thomson Reuters. August 25, 2009.

Corporate News: Hedges Pay Off for Gas Producers - Crackdown on Energy Speculators a Concern. Ann Davis. Wall Street Journal. August 12, 2009.

Regulatory action may see commods traders migrate. Javier Blas. Financial Times. August 5, 2009.

HEARD ON THE STREET – Speculation Witch Hunt Is a Gamble. Liam Denning. Wall Street Journal. August 5, 2009.

Commodities speculation [Lex Column]. Financial Times. August 4, 2009.

July 2009 Articles

The Politics of ‘Speculation’ [Review & Outlook]. Wall Street Journal. July 29, 2009.

Wheat Market Speculation: A Congressional Issue, Or Simply Revising The Delivery Contract? Stu Ellis. The Farm Gate, University of Illinois Extension. July 22, 2009.

Debate Over Speculation In Commodities Investor's Business Daily. Trang Ho. Investor's Business Daily. July 21, 2009.

Comments on Permanent Senate Subcommittee on Investigations Report on CBOT Wheat Market. Scott H. Irwin, Darrel L. Good, Philip Garcia, and Eugene L. Kunda. Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics. University of Illinois. July 6, 2009.

Floyd Norris blogs on commodity speculation. New York Times.. July 10, 2009.

Now I Know How Sisyphus Felt. Craig Pirrong. streetwiseprofessor.com. July 8, 2009.

The Truth About Oil ETFs and Index Funds. Melanie Wold. The Wold Report. July 10, 2009.

Energy Traders on the Firing Line. Dwight Cass and Lauren Silva Laughlin. New York Times. July 8, 2009.

Whatever happened to the food crisis? It crept back. The Economist.. July 9, 2009.

Washington to Speculators: All Bets Are Off. Liam Denning. Wall Street Journal. July 7, 2009.

Commodity derivatives regulation. Financial Times. July 7, 2009.

June 2009 Articles

CME Group Disputes Report on Wheat Prices. New York Times. June 25, 2009.

April 2009 Articles

In Defense of Derivatives and How to Regulate Them. Rene M. Stulz. April 7, 2009, The Wall Street Journal.

Crop Cutbacks by Farmers Spell Higher Food Prices. Scott Kilman; April 6, 2009, Wall Street Journal.

March 2009 Articles

What's Driving Food Prices? Philip C. Abbott, Christopher Hurt, Wallace E. Tyner; Farm Foundation, Issue Report, March 2009 Update.

What's [still] driving food and commodity prices? March 16, 2009, Farmanddairy.com.

U.S. News: Grain Costs Down, Groceries Not – Farmers to Cut Back on Planting Amid Market Weakness, Pressuring Consumer Prices. Scott Kilman; March 13, 2009, Wall Street Journal.

Commodity Boom Wasn’t Speculation, Regulators Say (Update1). Chanyaporn Chanjaroen and John Rega; March 5, 2009, Bloomberg Business News

February 2009 Articles

Large Traders Do Not Adversely Affect Futures Mkts – Study February 26, 2009, Dow Jones Commodities Service.

Index, Managed Money Traders Do Not Harm Gas, Oil Markets: Study. Jessica Marron; February 26, 2009, Platts News.

An Evaluation of the Influence of Large Reporting Traders on Futures Market Performance. February 2008, Informa Economics.

December 2008 Articles

Oil speculation: It's back. Jon Birger, CNNMoney.com, December 1, 2008.

September 2008 Articles

The Misadventures of Mr. Masters: Act II (a critique of a recent report by Michael Masters on the role of commodity speculation). Dr. Scott Irwin, September 17, 2008, Econbrowser.

See You Later, Speculator. Editorial; September 15, 2008, Wall Street Journal

Soybeans Near $15 On Stockpile Worries. Lauren Etter, Debbie Carlson and Gary Wulf; September 13, 2008, Wall Street Journal

August 2008 Articles

Facts and Fallacies About Commodity Investment Flows. Suki Cooper, Kevin Norrish and Amrita Sen; August 20, 2008, Risk News, reprinted from Futures Industry magazine.

Corn bonanza won't cut food prices: A fortunate mix of sunshine and rain is helping produce a bumper crop, but much of the grain will be used to make ethanol. Joshua Boak and Mike Hughlett; August 13, 2008, Chicago Tribune

July 2008 Articles

What’s Driving Food Prices? Phillip C. Abbott, Christopher Hurt, Wallace E. Tyner: July 2008, Farm Foundation (executive summary) (full report)

Interim Report on Crude Oil. July 2008, Interagency Task Force on Commodity Markets

An Energy Sarbox. Editorial; July 22, 2008, Wall Street Journal

Futures Imperfect. Dwight R. Sanders and Scott H. Irwin; July 20, 2008, New York Times

Same Good Earth, Different Harvests. Greg Burns, Alex Rodriquez, and Oscar Avila; July 13, 2008, Chicago Tribune

Restricting Speculators Will Not Reduce Oil Prices. Craig Pirrong; July 11, 2008, Wall Street Journal

Thinking Inside the Box to Quell Rising Fuel Costs. Stephen J. Hedges; July 8, 2008, Chicago Tribune

Secret Report: Biofuel Caused Food Crisis. Aditya Chakrabortty; July 4, 2008, The Guardian

Speculators Fixing Oil Prices? Don’t Bet On It. July 2008, Institute for Energy Research

Oil Speculation. July 3, 2008, Financial Times (FT Lex)

Exchanges Up Defenses Against Moves To Curb Speculation. Doug Cameron; July 2, 2008, Dow Jones Newswires

For Love of Speculators* (*Well, at least respect what they do): Editorial. July 2, 2008, Chicago Tribune

Oil World Gathers Amid Blame Game Over Record Prices. July 1, 2008, Daily Times

Energy Chiefs Absolve Oil Speculators. Carola Hoyos; July 1, 2008, Financial Times (subscription required)

Who's Behind High Prices. Robert J. Samuelson; July 1, 2008, Washington Post

June 2008 Articles

What Onions Teach Us About Oil Prices. John Birger; June 30, 2008, Fortune

Easy Target, But Not the Right One. Joe Nocera; June 28, 2008, New York Times

Craig Donohue, CME Group Outlook. June 27, 2008, CNBC (video)

Fundamentals, not speculators, are to blame for rising prices. Francisco Blanch; June 25, 2008, Financial Times (subscription required)

Review and Outlook: Political Speculators. June 24, 2008, Wall Street Journal (subscription required)

Driving Away Oil Speculators May Not Help. Mark Gongloff; June 24, 2008, Wall Street Journal (subscription required)

Farm Prices' Roundabout Path to Market. Avi Salzman; June 24, 2008. BusinessWeek

Terry Duffy, Market Forces. June 20, 2008, Fox News (video)

Flooding Means Higher Food Prices. June 18, 2008, Fox News (video)

CME Group's Duffy speaks with Bloomberg on Capitol Hill. June 17, 2008, Bloomberg

CME’s Duffy says speculators not causing pain at gas pump. Paul Merion; June 17, 2008, Chicago Business

Flooded Farmland and Commodities. Bill O’Neill; June 16, 2008, CNBC (video)

In Midwest Floods, A Broad Threat to Crops. Susan Saulny; June 16, 2008, New York Times

A Bull Market Sees the Worst in Speculators. Diana B. Henriques; June 13, 2008, New York Times

Terry Duffy, Street Smarts, Mad About Options. Kevin Cook; June 12, 2008, Options News Network (video)

Severe Weather Floods Midwest. Cynthia Bowers; June 11, 2008, CBS News (video)

Energy Agency Reduces Forecast for Oil Demand. Jad Mouawad; June 11, 2008, New York Times

Paulson won’t blame speculators. Ron Orol; June 10, 2008, TheDeal.com

Dubai’s Favorite Senators. June 10, 2008, Wall Street Journal

Regs Unlikely to Crimp Value. Gregory Meyer; June 9, 2008, Barron’s Online

Craig Donohue on CNBC's The Call. June 6, 2008, CNBC (video)

Commodity-price Scapegoats. Donald Luskin; June 3, 2008, The Money Blogs

Blamestorming for food, oil prices. Walter Williams; June 1, 2008 , appealdemocrat.com

CME Group Congressional Testimonies and Speeches

Market Studies and Other Resources

Commodity Index Investing and Commodity Futures Prices. Hans Stoll and Robert E. Whaley. Owen Graduate School of Management, Vanderbilt University, Nashville, Tenn.. September 10, 2009.

Issues Involving the Use of the Futures Markets to Invest in Commodity Indexes. U.S. Government Accountability Office. January 30, 2009.

An Evaluation of the Influence of Large Reporting Traders on Futures Market Performance. Informa Economics. January 2009.

Staff Report on Commodity Swap Dealers & Index Traders with Commission Recommendations. Commodity Futures Trading Commission. September 2008.

Global Agricultural Supply and Demand: Factors Contributing to the Recent Increase in Food Commodity Prices. Ronald Trostle. A Report from the Economic Research Service of the USDA. July 2008.

Speculative Position Limits and Hedge Exemptions. Fred Seamon, Associate Director, Research and Product Development. CME Group. July 2008.

Navigating the Uncharted Waters of Weather and Supply & Demand Fundamentals: 2008 Corn, Soybean and Wheat Market Prospects
Drew Lerner, president, World Weather, Inc. and Steve Freed, vice president of Research, ADM Investor Services. June 12, 2008. [video: archived webinar]

Energy Price Outlook. Walter Zimmermann. United ICAP. September 2008.

What's Driving Food Prices? Philip C. Abbott, Christopher Hurt, Wallace E. Tyner. Farm Foundation. Issue Report. July 2008.

Independent Research by EKA on the role of Institutional Investors in Rising Commodity Prices.

CFTC Fact Sheet on Claim of Speculation in Oil Market. Commodity Futures Trading Commission. June 2008.

The Adequacy of Speculation in Agricultural Futures Markets: Too Much of a Good Thing? Dwight R. Sanders, Scott H. Irwin, and Robert P. Merrin. Dept. of Agriculture and Consumer Economics, Univ. of Ill. at Urbana-Champaign. June 2008.

The Global Food Crisis: Facts and Opportunities. BV Krishnamurthy. Harvard Business Publishing. May 8, 2008.

A New Era in Grains and Oilseeds
Joseph Victor, Vice President of Marketing, Allendale, Inc., and Dr. Robert Wisner, Extension Economist, Iowa State University. March 25, 2008. [video: archived webinar]

CME Group Research

CFTC Commitment of Traders Report. John D. Hill, CME Group Research and Product Development. CME Group. September 29, 2009.

Speculative Position Limits and Hedge Fund Exemptions. Fred Seamon, associate director, Research and Product Development. CME Group. July 2008.

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