Commodity Information Update

With historic volatility in food staples such as corn, soybeans and wheat, as well as with energy, the role of “speculators” in the commodity markets has come into question. CME Group is taking a leading role to educate Congress and others about the fundamental factors impacting the markets and the important role speculators and other participants all play in our free markets. Check this site regularly to stay informed about our grain and energy markets. We will add links as new information becomes available.

An Evaluation of the Influence of Large Reporting Traders on Futures Market Performance, Dave Lehman, Director of Commodity Research and Product Development, CME Group, February 2009 (Video Podcast)

Fundamental Factors Impacting Other Commodity Prices, updated June 30, 2009 (pdf)

RECENT ITEMS [updated July 22, 2010]

Commodity Bulls Financial Times/ft.com. July 21, 2010. (Subscription required.)

No Theory? No Evidence? No Problem? DwigCraig Pirrong. Regulation, published by the Cato Institute. Summer 2010.

Speculation and Financial Fund Activity. Dwight Sanders and Scott Irwin. Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, June 2010.

CFTC Documents Reveal Internal Debate on Position Limits. Wall Street Journal. May 2010.

The Value of Profitable Speculation-Becker. Gary Becker. The Becker-Posner Blog. May 2, 2010.

View Archives: 2008-2010

CME Group Congressional Testimonies and Speeches

Market Studies and Other Resources

The Adequacy of Speculation in Agricultural Futures Markets. Dwight Sanders, Scott Irwin and Robert Merrin. Published by Oxford University, on behalf of the Agricultural and Applied Economics Association. Volume 32, Number 1, 2010.

Spreads and Non-Convergence in CBOT Corn, Soybean, and Wheat Futures: Are Index Funds to Blame? Scott H. Irwin, Philip Garcia, Darrel L. Good, and Eugene L. Kunda. University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. November 2009.

Commodity Index Investing and Commodity Futures Prices. Hans Stoll and Robert E. Whaley. Owen Graduate School of Management, Vanderbilt University, Nashville, Tenn.. September 10, 2009.

Issues Involving the Use of the Futures Markets to Invest in Commodity Indexes. U.S. Government Accountability Office. January 30, 2009.

An Evaluation of the Influence of Large Reporting Traders on Futures Market Performance. Informa Economics. January 2009.

Global Agricultural Supply and Demand: Factors Contributing to the Recent Increase in Food Commodity Prices. Ronald Trostle. A Report from the Economic Research Service of the USDA. July 2008.

Speculative Position Limits and Hedge Exemptions. Fred Seamon, Associate Director, Research and Product Development. CME Group. July 2008.

Navigating the Uncharted Waters of Weather and Supply & Demand Fundamentals: 2008 Corn, Soybean and Wheat Market Prospects
Drew Lerner, president, World Weather, Inc. and Steve Freed, vice president of Research, ADM Investor Services. June 12, 2008. [video: archived webinar]

Energy Price Outlook. Walter Zimmermann. United ICAP. September 2008.

What's Driving Food Prices? Philip C. Abbott, Christopher Hurt, Wallace E. Tyner. Farm Foundation. Issue Report. July 2008.

Independent Research by EKA on the role of Institutional Investors in Rising Commodity Prices.

The Adequacy of Speculation in Agricultural Futures Markets: Too Much of a Good Thing? Dwight R. Sanders, Scott H. Irwin, and Robert P. Merrin. Dept. of Agriculture and Consumer Economics, Univ. of Ill. at Urbana-Champaign. June 2008.

The Global Food Crisis: Facts and Opportunities. BV Krishnamurthy. Harvard Business Publishing. May 8, 2008.

A New Era in Grains and Oilseeds
Joseph Victor, Vice President of Marketing, Allendale, Inc., and Dr. Robert Wisner, Extension Economist, Iowa State University. March 25, 2008. [video: archived webinar]

CME Group Research

Index Investment Data. John D. Hill, CME Group Research and Product Development. CME Group. November 17, 2009.

CFTC Commitment of Traders Report. John D. Hill, CME Group Research and Product Development. CME Group. September 29, 2009.

Speculative Position Limits and Hedge Fund Exemptions. Fred Seamon, associate director, Research and Product Development. CME Group. July 2008.

Excessive Speculation and Position Limits in Energy Derivatives Markets. CME Group. September 16, 2009.

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