Blu Putnam - U.S. Economy Likely Will "Muddle Through" 2013

Dive Off "Fiscal Cliff" Would Trigger Recession

The U.S. economy is poised to continue relatively restrained growth of 1.5% to 2.5% in 2013, adding about 100,000 net new jobs a month, provided the looming "fiscal cliff" is avoided, CME Group Chief Economist Blu Putnam wrote.

Among three scenarios for next year, a "muddle through, no long-term fiscal compromise" is most likely, at about 60% probability, Putnam said in a recent forecast. There's a 20% chance the U.S. will fall off the fiscal cliff and into recession, with Gross Domestic Product shrinking 2%.

There's also a 20% chance of an unexpected fiscal compromise between Congress and the White House that would set the stage for newfound economic confidence and stronger real GDP growth of 3% to 4%. "If the U.S. can get by the fiscal cliff, then economic growth has the potential to be quite robust," he said.

Still, GDP projections for 2013 are "unusually high-risk," Putnam said. "There are international risks coming from Europe, China, and the potential for geopolitical disruptions. On the home front, though, the risks are much more political than market-based and exceedingly hard to handicap."

Read Full Report

Futures & Options Trading

As the world's leading and most diverse derivatives marketplace, CME Group is where the world comes to manage risk. CME Group exchanges offer the widest range of global benchmark products across all major asset classes, including futures and options based on interest rates, equity indexes, foreign exchange, energy, agricultural commodities, metals, weather and real estate. CME Group brings buyers and sellers together through the CME Globex electronic trading platform and trading facilities in New York and Chicago. CME Group also operates CME Clearing, one of the largest central counterparty clearing services in the world, which provides clearing and settlement services for exchange-traded contracts, as well as for over-the-counter derivatives transactions through CME ClearPort.

Idea Exchange

Idea Exchange is your direct link to the product managers, marketers, and the development teams who create and will allow you to review functionality, participate in focus and provide feedback on upcoming Web initiatives

Idea Exchange - Join Our User Focus Program

Contact Us

CME Group/Chicago HQ:
Local: +1 312 930 1000
Toll Free: +1 866 716 7274

Global Customer Contacts

More CME Group Direct Lines
Phone list by department

Global Partnerships


Global Offices Contact Information

Calgary Houston Chicago New York Washington São Paulo Belfast London Singapore Hong Kong Seoul Tokyo Beijing

© 2014 CME Group Inc. All rights reserved.

CME Group is the world's leading and most diverse derivatives marketplace. The company is comprised of four Designated Contract Markets (DCMs). Further information on each exchange's rules and product listings can be found by clicking on the links to CME, CBOT, NYMEX, and COMEX.