Historical Volatility
Methodology

Our methodology for historical volatility calculation is the annualized standard deviation of the first difference in the logarithmic values of nearby futures settlement prices. Mathematically,

Historical Volatility Methodology

The following example illustrates how we arrive to the volatility data for Rough Rice Futures contract. During March 2008, the realized (historical) volatility for Rough Rice is 2.2% on a daily basis. As volatility is usually described in annualized terms, we use a factor of square root of 252 (estimated number of trade days in a year) to annualize the historical volatility to 35.4%.

  

Rough Rice Trade Date

Daily Settlement

Prior Day Settlement

Natural Log

March 2008 Daily Volatility 2.2%

March 2008 Annualized Volatility 35.4%

3/3/2008
18.270
18.000
0.0149
2.2%
35.4%
3/4/2008
17.750
18.270
(0.0289)
 
 
3/5/2008
17.900
17.750
0.0084
 
 
3/6/2008
17.790
17.900
(0.0062)
 
 
3/7/2008
17.310
17.790
(0.0274)
 
 
3/10/2008
17.750
17.310
0.0251
 
 
3/11/2008
18.500
17.750
0.0414
 
 
3/12/2008
18.950
18.500
0.0240
 
 
3/13/2008
19.000
18.950
0.0026
 
 
3/14/2008
18.300
19.000
(0.0375)
 
 
3/17/2008
17.930
18.300
(0.0204)
 
 
3/18/2008
18.430
17.930
0.0275
 
 
3/19/2008
18.025
18.430
(0.0222)
 
 
3/20/2008
18.035
18.025
0.0006
 
 
3/24/2008
18.535
18.035
0.0273
 
 
3/25/2008
19.035
18.535
0.0266
 
 
3/26/2008
19.220
19.035
0.0097
 
 
3/27/2008
19.305
19.220
0.0044
 
 
3/28/2008
19.675
19.305
0.0190
 
 
3/31/2008
19.690
19.675
0.0008
 
 
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