December Copper Update

  • 18 Jan 2018
  • By CME Group
  • Topics: Metals

Copper Updates

  • After a steep 4.5% drop to 2.9430 on December 5, 2017 (HG March18 contract), Copper Futures prices swiftly recovered and reached a 4-year high at 3.3220 on December 28.
  • Potential supply disruptions including numerous strikes as well as positive demand outlook from copper semi-fabricators contributed to the price strength.
  • Long positions in Copper Futures held by money managers increased from 84.7K lots as of December 13, 2017 to 134.6K lots as of January 2, 2018 (+59%) confirming the bullish positioning across financial market participants.
  • Sharp price swings were supported by robust volume increases in both Copper futures and options. Average daily volume of Copper Futures in December reached 118K contracts (~2.34 mil mt), up by 73% vs. December 2016.
  • Copper Options average daily volume exceeded 1,000 contracts in December as liquidity continues to grow and electronic markets on the screen get narrower and deeper.
  • Warehouse stocks of COMEX Copper increased 135% during 2017.
  • Newly launched Copper Premium Grade A CIF Shanghai (Metal Bulletin) Futures (CUP) gained good traction in December. 329 contracts traded within the range of $65-69 per mt for Q1 2018.

Copper Price Performance

Copper Futures Forward Curve: Month-on-Month Change

Copper Futures Month-on-Month Change in Open Interest


Liquidity Charts

Last Month ADV per hour (based on GMT time-zone)


Copper Futures Market Depth


Copper Inventory Movements

Date Total Inventory Eligible Registered Registered, %
31/12/2016 88,308 4,917 83,391 94%
30/11/2017 209,143 18,080 191,063 91%
31/12/2017 211,172 9,776 201,396 95%
MoM Change, % 1% -46% 5%  
YoY Change, % 139% 99% 142%  

Source: CME Group


Commitment of Traders Report by the CFTC

Open Interest

Data as of Year Open Interest % Change in OI (WOW)
1/2/2018 288846 7.59%

Long

Data as of Year Producer / Merchant Positions Long Swap Dealers Positions Long Managed Money Positions Long Other Rept Positions Long Nonrept Positions Long Total Long
  % Change in Producer Long (WOW) % Change in Swap Long (WOW) % Change in Managed Money Long (WOW) % Change in Other Rept Long (WOW) % Change in Nonrept Long (WOW) %Change in Total Long
1/2/2018 36991 42809 152154 39385 17507 288846
  -9.83% 1.21% 12.80% 11.64% 16.78% 7.59%

Short

Data as of Year Producer / Merchant Positions Short Swap Dealers Positions Short Managed Money Positions Short Other Rept Positions Short Nonrept Positions Short Total Short
  % Change in Producer Short (WOW) % Change in Swap Short (WOW) % Change in Managed Money Short (WOW) % Change in Other Rept Short (WOW) % Change in Nonrept Short (WOW) %Change in Total Short
1/2/2018 127991 16692 38841 88786 16536 288846
  4.26% 24.86% 10.25% 8.72% 7.04% 7.15%

Total

Data as of Year Producer Total Swap Dealers Total Managed Money Total Other Rept Total Nonrept Total
  %Change in Producer Total %Change in Swap Dealers Total %Change in Managed Money Total %Change in Other Rept Total %Change in Nonrept Total
1/2/2018 164982 59501 190995 128171 34043
  0.73% 6.89% 12.27% 9.60% 11.84%

Copper Premium Futures

  • Newly launched copper premium futures gained good traction in the first month of trading as turnover reached 329 lots in December.

Copper Options

Put/Call Options Open Interest Breakdown and Top Strikes

Top 5 Open Interest for HIGH GRADE COPPER OPTION for 29/12/2017
Product Long Desc Contract Month Strike OI
HIGH GRADE COPPER OPTION 201812 3.15 700
HIGH GRADE COPPER OPTION 201803 3.3 580
HIGH GRADE COPPER OPTION 201803 3.1 559
HIGH GRADE COPPER OPTION 201803 2.9 501
HIGH GRADE COPPER OPTION 201803 3.4 429

Source: CME Group

Copper Options: Bid/Ask Spreads Heatmap

Source: CME Group

Copper Options: Depth Heatmap

Source: CME Group

*Percentiles represent portion of time when the order book is available


If you have any questions or would like more information regarding this weekly communication, please contact metals@cmegroup.com.

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