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Latin America
US FX
The financial markets remain risk averse after some of the policymakers from both the Fed and the Bank of England called for ending quantitative easing on Wednesday. As I had warned at the time of Fed's pledge, the odds of lowering the unemployment rate in the US without altering the definition of full employment are very low; our industry is limited and the process of outsourcing jobs continues and will continue unabated.
The European and commodity currencies deepened Wednesday's losses, while the yen remains sidelined near significant lows. The Asia/Pacific stock indexes fell. The European bourses are down and the US stock markets are lower in pre-open trading. Gold, oil and silver are down as well.
The short-term outlook for the European and commodity currencies is bearish. The medium-term outlook for most of the foreign currencies is sideways. The LGR short-term model is short on all the European and commodity currencies.
Good luck!
www.lucafxta.com
Overnight
Today's economic calendar
EUR – March
The LGR Model: Short since February 7
The March euro opens at a 1 ½-month low after closing below the 21-day exponential moving average on Wednesday. It moved from a falling wedge to a channel declining since February 1, when it peaked at a 14-month high. The euro bottomed at an over two-year low in July.
The short-term outlook is bearish. The medium-term outlook is slightly bullish but the LGR model is short.
The 100-day exponential moving average supports at 1.3154. Further support is at 1.3072 and 1.3005.
Immediate resistance is at 1.3275. Further resistance is at 1.3360.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Slightly bearish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Slightly bullish
JPY – March
The LGR Model: Long since February 8
The severely oversold March Japanese yen remains sidelined after closing off its worst levels on Tuesday and falling off an eight-day high on Friday. It remains close to a 2 1/2-year low. The yen reached the target of a long-term head–and-shoulders pattern in the 1.0610 area. It is trading well below the 21-day exponential moving average. The yen had peaked on September 13.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bearish but the LGR model is long.
Immediate resistance is at 1.0795. Further resistance is at 1.0875.
A pivot low is at 1.0588. Further support is at 1.0518.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bullish
MACD: Sideways
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bearish
GBP – March
The LGR Model: Short since February 11
The March pound opens off a new 16-month low in the US after accelerating recent losses on Wednesday on fears that the BoE and the Fed are less eager to support their respective economies. It is trading below the bottom of a four-year old symmetrical triangle. The 21-day exponential moving average continues caps far away and the pound is oversold. The pound had marked a 17-month high on January 2 and bottomed on June 1.
The short-term outlook is bearish. The medium-term outlook is bearish and the LGR model is short.
Initial support is at 1.5124. Further support is at 1.5015.
Immediate resistance is at 1.5285. The next cap is 1.5355.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Bearish
Ichimoku: Bearish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
CHF – March
The LGR Model: Short since February 7
The March Swiss franc accelerated recent losses and opens at a one-month low in the US. The franc is testing the trend line rising since November. It remains well below the 21-day exponential moving average on Wednesday and is oversold. The franc is trading in a channel rising since November. It peaked at a 10-month high on February 1 and marked a 19-month low on July 24.
The short-term outlook is bearish. The medium-term outlook is slightly bullish but the LGR model is short.
Initial support is at 1.0710. A pivot low is at 1.0657.
The 200-day exponential moving average resists at 1.0783. The next cap is 1.0891.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Bearish
Ichimoku: Bearish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
CAD – March
The LGR Model: Short since February 8
The March Canadian dollar is falling for a fourth day and opens at a seven-month low. The loonie reached the target of a short-term bearish flag. The loonie is trading well below the 21-day exponential moving average and is oversold. It is testing the bottom of a long-term (19-month) symmetrical triangle and the bottom of a channel declining since September. The loonie is also trading below the 50% mark of the June-September uptrend. The Canadian dollar peaked at a 10-month high on February 1.
The short-term outlook is bearish. The medium-term outlook is bearish and the LGR model is short.
Immediate support is at .9755. Further support is at .9695.
Initial resistance is at .9835. Further resistance is at .9910. The 21-day exponential moving average caps at .9955.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Bearish
Ichimoku: Bearish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
AUD – March
The LGR Model: Short since February 4
The March Australian dollar opens further down at a nine-day low. It is trading well below the 21-day exponential moving average and also below the 200-day-exponential moving average. The Aussie marked a new high for the uptrend on January 10.
The short-term outlook is slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook is sideways and the LGR model is short.
A pivot low is at 1.0223. Further support follows at 1.0200 and 1.0155.
Initial resistance is at 1.0280. The 21-day exponential moving average resists at 1.0326. Distant resistance is at 1.0440.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Bearish
Ichimoku: Bearish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Sideways
View All Market Commentary
The European and commodity currencies deepened Wednesday's losses, while the yen remains sidelined near significant lows. The Asia/Pacific stock indexes fell. The European bourses are down and the US stock markets are lower in pre-open trading. Gold, oil and silver are down as well.
The short-term outlook for the European and commodity currencies is bearish. The medium-term outlook for most of the foreign currencies is sideways. The LGR short-term model is short on all the European and commodity currencies.
Good luck!
www.lucafxta.com
Overnight
- China: The MNI business sentiment indicator increased to 61.79 in February from 55.16 in January.
- China: The leading economic index rose to 1 in January from 0.4 in December.
- Eurozone: The flash composite PMI fell unexpectedly to 47.3 in February from 48.6 in January.
- Switzerland: The trade surplus rose to CHF 2.13 billion in January from CHF 904 million in the December.
- UK: The public sector net borrowing came in at -£11.4 billion in January from £12.416 billion in December.
Today's economic calendar
- US: Consumer Price Index for January
- US: Initial jobless claims (February 17)
- US: Leading economic indicator for January
- US: Existing home sales for January
- US: Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey for February
EUR – March
The LGR Model: Short since February 7
The March euro opens at a 1 ½-month low after closing below the 21-day exponential moving average on Wednesday. It moved from a falling wedge to a channel declining since February 1, when it peaked at a 14-month high. The euro bottomed at an over two-year low in July.
The short-term outlook is bearish. The medium-term outlook is slightly bullish but the LGR model is short.
The 100-day exponential moving average supports at 1.3154. Further support is at 1.3072 and 1.3005.
Immediate resistance is at 1.3275. Further resistance is at 1.3360.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Slightly bearish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Slightly bullish
JPY – March
The LGR Model: Long since February 8
The severely oversold March Japanese yen remains sidelined after closing off its worst levels on Tuesday and falling off an eight-day high on Friday. It remains close to a 2 1/2-year low. The yen reached the target of a long-term head–and-shoulders pattern in the 1.0610 area. It is trading well below the 21-day exponential moving average. The yen had peaked on September 13.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bearish but the LGR model is long.
Immediate resistance is at 1.0795. Further resistance is at 1.0875.
A pivot low is at 1.0588. Further support is at 1.0518.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bullish
MACD: Sideways
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bearish
GBP – March
The LGR Model: Short since February 11
The March pound opens off a new 16-month low in the US after accelerating recent losses on Wednesday on fears that the BoE and the Fed are less eager to support their respective economies. It is trading below the bottom of a four-year old symmetrical triangle. The 21-day exponential moving average continues caps far away and the pound is oversold. The pound had marked a 17-month high on January 2 and bottomed on June 1.
The short-term outlook is bearish. The medium-term outlook is bearish and the LGR model is short.
Initial support is at 1.5124. Further support is at 1.5015.
Immediate resistance is at 1.5285. The next cap is 1.5355.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Bearish
Ichimoku: Bearish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
CHF – March
The LGR Model: Short since February 7
The March Swiss franc accelerated recent losses and opens at a one-month low in the US. The franc is testing the trend line rising since November. It remains well below the 21-day exponential moving average on Wednesday and is oversold. The franc is trading in a channel rising since November. It peaked at a 10-month high on February 1 and marked a 19-month low on July 24.
The short-term outlook is bearish. The medium-term outlook is slightly bullish but the LGR model is short.
Initial support is at 1.0710. A pivot low is at 1.0657.
The 200-day exponential moving average resists at 1.0783. The next cap is 1.0891.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Bearish
Ichimoku: Bearish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
CAD – March
The LGR Model: Short since February 8
The March Canadian dollar is falling for a fourth day and opens at a seven-month low. The loonie reached the target of a short-term bearish flag. The loonie is trading well below the 21-day exponential moving average and is oversold. It is testing the bottom of a long-term (19-month) symmetrical triangle and the bottom of a channel declining since September. The loonie is also trading below the 50% mark of the June-September uptrend. The Canadian dollar peaked at a 10-month high on February 1.
The short-term outlook is bearish. The medium-term outlook is bearish and the LGR model is short.
Immediate support is at .9755. Further support is at .9695.
Initial resistance is at .9835. Further resistance is at .9910. The 21-day exponential moving average caps at .9955.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Bearish
Ichimoku: Bearish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
AUD – March
The LGR Model: Short since February 4
The March Australian dollar opens further down at a nine-day low. It is trading well below the 21-day exponential moving average and also below the 200-day-exponential moving average. The Aussie marked a new high for the uptrend on January 10.
The short-term outlook is slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook is sideways and the LGR model is short.
A pivot low is at 1.0223. Further support follows at 1.0200 and 1.0155.
Initial resistance is at 1.0280. The 21-day exponential moving average resists at 1.0326. Distant resistance is at 1.0440.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Bearish
Ichimoku: Bearish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Sideways
View All Market Commentary
*Disclaimer: The information in the Market Commentaries was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed therein constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any futures or options contracts.
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